The Packers will become the last franchise to play a regular season international game when they battle the Giants at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. The NFL has been playing games in London since 2007, and until Sunday, there hadn’t been a single contest that pitted two teams that both had a winning record. Green Bay and New York are 3-1 after four weeks.
If the Packers are to win their fourth straight game and make a long plane ride home a happy one, here are five keys to victory:
1) FORCE MULTIPLE TURNOVERS
Green Bay has forced four turnovers this season. That ranks 25th in the league, which isn’t close to good enough for a unit that boasts seven No. 1 picks and stars at every level. And while it’s true that fumbles and especially interceptions tend to come in bunches, the most successful defenses when it comes to taking the ball away are the ones that play aggressively and with great passion. The Packers have shown little of each through four games, and that’s a big reason why they’ve created so few turnovers. If the far less talented Giants can protect the ball, they can stay competitive on Sunday.
2) SLOW DOWN SAQUON
The Giants’ top three wide receivers on Sunday will be Richie James, David Sills V, and Darius Slayton, and Daniel Bellinger will start at tight end. Their only legit weapon on offense is Saquon Barkley, who leads the league in rushing with 463 yards. Joe Barry must be prepared to stop the run, and that will mean greatly limiting the number of times he stays in two-shell. Green Bay’s embattled defensive coordinator needs to keep three linemen on the field and bring a safety into the box on every early down. He has to trust that his talented and high-priced secondary can get the job done.
3) HANDLE THE BLITZ
There’s a good reason defensive play-callers are reluctant to send extra rushers after Aaron Rodgers. When Tampa Bay blitzed the back-to-back league MVP 40% of the time in Week 3, he completed 77% of his passes and had a quarterback rating of 103.9. In fact, Rodgers threw an on-target pass every single time he was blitzed in the first three games of the season. However, none of this will likely deter defensive coordinator Wink Martindale. The Giants lead the league by blitzing on 45% of snaps, and while the number probably won’t be quite as high on Sunday, the Packers better be prepared.
4) STICK WITH THE RUN
The Giants are 28th in the league against the run, giving up 141 yards per game. A heavy dose of Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon will be the way to go on Sunday. Unfortunately, Rodgers seems intent on throwing the ball all over England. Here’s what he said when asked by reporters if he’d like Matt LaFleur to turn him loose: “Hell yeah, of course. Matt’s kind of in a grumpy mood right now. When he gets a little bit of rest and will be in a better mood, we’ll talk about airing it out a little bit more.” Based on how the Giants are playing defense this season, that discussion would best be put on hold.
5) CLEAN UP SPECIAL TEAMS
After three really good games, special teams regressed against the Patriots. The coverage units were the biggest problem. Speedy Marcus Jones returned four kicks for 111 yards and two punts for 49 yards. The Giants don’t have a returner of that caliber, so Rich Bisaccia’s troops should get back on track on Sunday. The addition of Eric Wilson – if he’s active – should help. The journeyman linebacker has played nearly 1,200 snaps on special teams. What else could help is adding practice squad kicker Ramiz Ahmed to the active roster. Mason Crosby has only five touchbacks in four games.
PREDICTION: The Packers will face yet another opponent missing some key pieces on offense. The Buccaneers were without their top three wide receivers, and the Patriots were without their starting quarterback. The Giants will also be without their top three wide receivers, plus starting quarterback Daniel Jones, who injured his ankle last week, will be less than 100%.
The Packers should win by at least two touchdowns, but that was also the case a week ago, and the Patriots wound up taking the game to OT. The coaching of Bill Belichick was a big reason his undermanned team was so competitive, and while the Giants don’t have a future Hall of Famer leading their staff, first-year offensive coordinator Mike Kafka and Martindale are very good at their respective jobs. LaFleur and Barry will need to be much better than they were last Sunday.
The Packers are favored by 8, and they should be able to cover. That said, the game being played in London is a variable that makes placing a wager an even riskier proposition than usual. GREEN BAY 27-17 (Season record: 3-1; 1-3 vs. the spread)
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I didn’t realize there hasn’t been a game in London featuring two teams with winning records, interesting. Probably has to due with losing teams being more willing to play there.