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June 22, 2017

Mocking The Packers


I‘ve never been a fan of mock drafts, but football fans love them. So here’s my first effort at predicting what will happen later this month in Philadelphia. The Packers pick 29th, and while general manager Ted Thompson always talks about taking the best player available, the reality is he’s going to try to fill a major need – just like he did in 2012 with Nick Perry and in 2013 with Datone Jones and in 2014 with Ha Ha Clinton-Dix and last year with Kenny Clark. That means expect yet another defensive player to be the choice when Roger Goodell steps to the podium.

ROUND 1

1. Cleveland – MYLES GARRETT (DE/Texas A&M)
2. San Francisco – SOLOMON THOMAS (DE/Stanford)
3. Chicago – MARSHON LATTIMORE (CB/Ohio State)
4. Jacksonville – LEONARD FOURNETTE (RB/LSU)
5. Tennessee – JAMAL ADAMS (S/LSU)
6. Jets – DESHAUN WATSON (QB/ Clemson)
7. San Diego – MALIK HOOKER (S/Ohio State)
8. Carolina – CHRISTIAN MCCAFFREY (RB/Stanford)
9. Cincinnati – JONATHAN ALLEN (DL/Alabama)
10. Buffalo – MITCHELL TRUBISKY (QB/North Carolina)
11. New Orleans – DEREK BARNETT (DE/Tennessee)
12. Cleveland – O.J. HOWARD (TE/Alabama)
13. Arizona – COREY DAVIS (WR/Western Michigan)
14. Philadelphia – GAREON CONLEY (CB/Ohio State))
15. Indianapolis – REUBEN FOSTER (LB/Alabama)
16. Baltimore – MIKE WILLIAMS (WR/Clemson)
17. Washington – JABRILL PEPPERS (DB/Michigan)
18. Tennessee – JOHN ROSS (WR/Washington)
19. Tampa Bay – HAASON REDDICK (LB/Temple)
20. Denver – GARETT BOLLES (OT/Utah)
21. Detroit – JARRAD DAVIS (ILB/Florida)
22. Miami – FORREST LAMP (OL/Western Kentucky)
23. Giants – RYAN RAMCZYK (OT/Wisconsin)
24. Oakland – DAVID NJOKU (TE/Miami)
25. Houston – QB PATRICK MAHOMES (QB/Texas Tech)
26. Seattle – KEVIN KING (CB/Washington)
27. Kansas City – TRE’DAVIOUS WHITE (CB/LSU)
28. Dallas – TAKKARIST MCKINLEY (LB/UCLA)

If the board falls this way, a logical list of possibilities at 29 would include edge rushers Taco Charlton (Michigan), Charles Harris (Missouri), T.J. Watt (Wisconsin) and Jordan Willis (Kansas St.) and corners Adoree’ Jackson (USC), Marlon Humphrey (Alabama) and Quincy Wilson (Florida). Wild cards would be disruptive defensive end Malik McDowell (Michigan St.) and explosive running back Dalvin Cook (Florida St.).

I also like corner Chidobe Awuzie (Colorado), who can play inside and outside and is an absolute beast on special teams, and edge rusher Carl Lawson (Auburn), who could develop into a more explosive Nick Perry. But the question is what will Thompson do, and to be honest, I’m not sure of the answer. Watt is a popular choice in mocks, and he does look like a Ted kind of linebacker. But if I have to make a guess right now – and since I’m writing this post, I do – let’s go with Harris.

While my gut – not to mention many hours of film study – tells me Charlton will be the better pro, Harris is a more natural fit for a 3-4 and he’s more explosive. I wish he were tougher vs. the run, but he’ll be able to pressure the QB from day one and that’s what this defense needs most. The fact his school has produced a number of good pass rushers in recent years is another plus.





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10 Responses “Mocking The Packers”

  1. Nerd
    April 20, 2017 at 3:19 pm

    I say he takes Watt or another 4-3 DE ‘tweener of the sort that Dom apparently loves so much.

    People think Ted is unpredictable because of the Justin Harrell pick, but most of the time it seems that he takes the obvious player.

    Grab Mixon in the second, if there’s a run on pass rushing OLBs.

  2. Packer Purist
    April 20, 2017 at 9:54 pm

    The best player or the Packers biggest need, both seem to suggest HARRIS.

    I would want Thompson to try trade down into the top of the second round to a QB needing team and pick up an extra 3rd round pick and maybe more.

    If trading down would work, the the Packers could address their four biggest needs in the 2nd and 3rd rounds: DE, CB, OL, and RB…

  3. Deepsky
    April 21, 2017 at 9:27 am

    I agree with Nerd. Thompson will pick a tweener defensive lineman to replace Peppers. Neither Matthews nor Perry are very good on the left.

    Because the prototypical defensive lineman/outside linebackers go early in the first round, the Packers will be stuck with the same too small or too lazy or injury prone players they have always drafted late in the first round. But that’s what you’re stuck with when you draft at the 28th position every year.

    And you can almost be guaranteed he will come from the West Coast.

  4. Michael Rodney
    April 21, 2017 at 2:18 pm

    Really expected more discussion. I’m going to turn off the comment feature if so few people are using it. It’s not a good look for a blog to have only a handful of comments per post.

  5. Mitch
    April 21, 2017 at 2:24 pm

    I’d be very tempted to take Cook and just outscore teams next season. Could you imagine an offense with Rodgers, Cook, Nelson, Cobb, Adams, Bennett and Kendricks?

  6. Thorny
    April 21, 2017 at 2:44 pm

    Trying to read Ted is a “fun” pursuit. Just factoring the nothing that he says, I think he actually believes his defense isn’t that bad.

    My guess is he is more worried about the fact that Eddie Lacy left than he is Sam Shields is gone. Seeing what we went through at RB last season which was enough for him to make a “big” trade, at least big for him, tells me he was more worried about RB than he ever was CB.

    Guessing Ted has full faith in Rollins and Randall to rebound and with House there he feels he’s good.

    I don’t believe he feels good about his RB position at all. Montgomery is very suspect to get through half a season uninjured much less a full one. With the great crop of backs, I think he’ll either take someone like Dalvin Cook at 29 or drop down into Round 2 and take Mixon.

  7. TJV
    April 23, 2017 at 11:56 am

    Here’s a progression of Chad Reuter’s mock drafts (at nfl.com). The first mock draft I saw from him was a 5-round draft sometime in March:

    No. 29: T.J. Watt – LB, Wisconsin
    No. 61: Marlon Humphrey, CB, Alabama
    No. 93: Danny Isidora, G, Miami
    No. 134: Joe Williams, RB, Utah
    No. 172: Richie Brown, LB, Mississippi St.
    No. 182: DeAngelo Yancey, WR, Purdue

    One interesting thing about this mock was I think the first two picks where players Michael mentioned for the Packers in the first round. I doubt anyone thinks Humphrey will make it deep into the second round, if he makes it into the second round at all.

    Here’s his next mock:
    29. Chidobe Awuzie CB Colorado
    61. DeMarcus Walker, DE, Florida St.
    93. Shaquill Griffin, CB, UCF
    134. Sean Harlow, G, Oregon St.
    172. Joe Williams, RB, Utah
    182. Samson Ebukam, LB, Eastern Washington
    212. Robert Davis, WR, Georgia St.

    This is a CB heavy mock which probably doesn’t correspond with how the Packers view their CBs. The only player repeated from the previous mock is Joe Williams.

    This is his latest dated April 21st:
    Round 1 (29) T.J. Watt, OLB, Wisconsin
    Round 2 (61) D’Onta Foreman, RB, Texas
    Round 3 (93) Derek Rivers, OLB, Youngstown State
    Round 4 (134) Sean Harlow, G, Oregon State
    Round 5 (172) Jonathan Calvin, DE, Mississippi State
    Round 5 (182) Nate Hairston, CB, Temple
    Round 6 (212) Robert Davis, WR, Georgia State
    Round 7 (247) Jonathan McLaughlin, T, Virginia Tech

    Back to Watt in the first but I heard him say in an interview there’s a good chance Dallas takes Watt at 28. If the Packers wait until the fifth round to take a CB in a “CB rich draft”…

    • Michael Rodney
      April 23, 2017 at 12:00 pm

      Not sure why people bother doing so many mocks since none of them look remotely the same. BTW, Nate Hairston would be a great 5th round pick.

      • Michael Rodney
        April 23, 2017 at 1:01 pm

        Hairston could be there in the 5th round. I just think he’s better than people realize.

  8. TJV
    April 23, 2017 at 12:57 pm

    Michael,

    In an interview Reuter said he’s is constantly revising his mock draft and only “finishes” one when his editor tells him he’s out of time and must publish one.

    Regarding Hairston, I assume you mean it’s extremely unlikely he’ll be available in the 5th.

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