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June 22, 2017

Packers Pass On Day 1

General Manager Ted Thompson traded out of the first round in 2008 and drafted wide receiver Jordy Nelson at No. 36. Packers fans can only hope things work out nearly as well nine years later. By sending the 29th pick to Cleveland late Thursday night, Green Bay will now be on the clock when the draft resumes later today in Philly.

By not exercising his original pick, Thompson allowed linebackers T.J. Watt and Reuben Foster to come off the board, but there are still plenty of quality players available. Chief among them are running backs Dalvin Cook, Joe Mixon and Alvin Kamara, offensive linemen Forrest Lamp and Dion Dawkins, defensive ends Malik McDowell and Chris Wormley, linebackers Carl Lawson, Jordan Willis and Zach Cunningham and corners Kevin King, Chidobe Awuzie and Quincy Wilson.

If you believe Bob McGinn of the Journal Sentinel, King will be the choice at 33. But moving out of the first round might also put the running backs in play. Cook and Mixon – for different reasons – would’ve been gambles on Thursday. As strange as it may seem, one day does make a difference. Not only is the financial commitment less, but a mistake in round 2 is quickly forgotten while a mistake in round 1 lives in infamy.

Thanks to the trade, the Packers now own the top pick in both the second and fourth rounds – ideal spots to be in after round 1. You can be sure half the GMs in the league will be offering Thompson the moon for a chance to bat leadoff and get the top player on their board on Friday and Saturday. Green Bay already has two 2s, two 4s and two 5s. Those numbers could go up even further. Or Thompson could choose to package some of those picks and move up in a round. My guess is he’ll do one or the other – and maybe even both.

Assuming Thompson stays at 33, I’d love to see him take either Cook or Mixon. I know they don’t play defense, but the talent disparity between them and guys like Willis, King and Awuzie is enormous. Plus, there’d still be plenty of ammunition left to grab a corner and an edge rusher later in the night. Among the players who could be around at 61 and/or 93 include wide receivers Juju Smith-Schuster and Cooper Kupp, guard Dan Feeney, linebackers Tyus Bowser, Tim Williams and Ryan Anderson and corner Sidney Jones.

photo courtesy of packers.com


19 Responses “Packers Pass On Day 1”

  1. Mike in SF
    April 28, 2017 at 1:04 am

    Wow, those picks seem a lot more attractive now that I realize he gets to bat first twice. Teddy will be the bell of the ball. I agree that he’s definitely going to make some more moves – this is where TT excels. Let’s just hope he picks the right names when it’s time to pull the trigger. Mixon will probably be around late second, but why risk it? He looks like Eric Dickerson reborn.

  2. Thorny
    April 28, 2017 at 1:29 am

    Wow. That played out quite nicely and unexpectedly. I was surprised to hear he was looking for a partner to move UP or down. Down it was… I thought it would be great to get New Orleans to trade up with us and then trade back, again. It sounds like TT will trade back in Round 2, so not too far off from what I thought would be a really fantastic scenario for us. How far do you trade back? I don’t think it’ll be too far. Ted said there were 3 or 4 guys he was thinking about. Going to guess Cook, Mixon, King and…? Awuzie? Perhaps, one of the edge rushers?

    As one of Ted’s biggest detractrors, I applaud him, for now. We had Foster sitting there and didn’t pull the trigger. Casserly’s favorite player in this draft was TJ Watt. Pittsburgh knows OLB’s… they took him. I’m guessing Ted likes Biegel more?

    One thing I was thinking about. Seattle has pick 2 in Round 2. Maybe, they’d love to control the first two picks in Round 2 by giving us Sherman? Schneider already has 6 picks tomorrow. Ted sounds like he wants to go Sashi Brown and acquire a bunch more picks to try to fill all the holes that it’s actually shocking he seems to be aware of.

    Cook, Mixon and even Lamp should be a consideration. At this point, I think they can get the same type of CB at the end of Round 2 as they could in the beginning. Not so sure they could get a Mixon or Cook at the end of Round 2. STAR power. Get someone who can change games. Not some complementary piece who is nice to have. You can get those guys later on.

    More excited for Day 2 than I was for Day 1. Too bad the Bears shot their wad on Trubisky… We need another Chicago. Someone who is lusting after Kizer to give us the world to get up there. Just can’t see us going more than 3 or 4 slots back. Ted has those 3 or 4 guys he likes and moving more than 3 or 4 slots back is roulette. Someone trade up and take Aaron Rouse, I mean Kevin King, before TT does!

  3. Cudahy Cheesehead
    April 28, 2017 at 7:42 am

    Thanks! I enjoyed your running commentary last night.

  4. April 28, 2017 at 8:22 am

    Thanks for the effort… appreciated!

    I understand that Ted is listening to trade offers and it seems he’s serious about moving down again. He seems to want extra swings, and I agree with that approach. With a deep draft and a ton of needs the more picks the better- to a point. I mean who wouldn’t want to have 8 second round picks… but as long as things stay in appropriate proportion I think trading down is a great strategy.

    Thanks again for your outstanding work, hope you enjoy your day and the weekend.


  5. John wendelborn
    April 28, 2017 at 9:16 am

    Convert 4th thru 7th picks into 2 and 3s….3 2s and 3 3s..

  6. CJS
    April 28, 2017 at 9:22 am

    Most satisfying trade back ever. 4 spots back for the first pick Friday and Saturday. I wasn’t sold on Watt either. So many Badgers homers freaking out that we passed on him.

    I *am* sold on Mixon, so I hope Ted trades back again today and gets him somewhere in R2.

  7. Pandabucks
    April 28, 2017 at 9:46 am

    I expect the Jets and Cardinals to compete for our pick.

    The Cards would have to offer their 2nd and 3rd–which would be awesome.

    The Jets would have to offer their 2nd and 3rd for our top 2nd and late 3rd–again, awesome.

    Let the bidding commense!

  8. Jon Posch
    April 28, 2017 at 9:51 am

    As a proud patron of the site, I’d like to note that Ted should grab a QB to groom as AA-Rod’s heir. We need to grab the next King of the North before it’s too late. Also, grabbing Mason Crosby’s successor before the end of day 2 would be a shrewd move.

  9. NP40
    April 28, 2017 at 11:09 am

    We had the 31st ranked pass defense in the NFL, lost an NFC championship over it so I’m hopeful Thompson will do something, anything more than signing Davon House to help shore this up.

    You may as well draft Mixon or Cook, clearly game changers. The O would be unstoppable unless McCarthy demands they run ISO stick routes out of the backfield.

    I cringed a little when Ted passed on Ruben Foster but it looks like many other GM’s had legitimate concerns about him. If Watt goes on to stardom it may accelerate Thompson’s retirement from the constant reminders of passing on him.

    The Evans signing at guard should let Ted focus on defense for our next Datone Jones. Speed Ted, draft some speed.

  10. speakeasy
    April 28, 2017 at 11:31 am

    I loved the trade back and was hoping for it. To move back 4 spots to add another 4th was awesome. Ideal scenario is trading the 33rd pick and moving back another 3-5 spots to get another pick or two. Then you have to make a pick.

    Huge leverage. Think about the teams that want say Robinson or Lamp knowing that Seattle may want them as OL is their biggest weakness (T in particular). To me, that is the big card we hold. There are plenty of good CBs and a few good RBs of course (as Michael noted) so if TT seems them all as around the same quality, he should still get someone at the position while accumulating more picks. Love to see a draft with 6-7 picks in the top 4 rounds.

    The more and more it’s talked about, I think I’m getting on board with the thought of a Cook in the early second. However, a guy like Freeman may be able to be had in our late 2nd round pick (or Samaje in 3rd).

    My last thought, I think we will see TT trade back with the 33rd pick, but then use a few picks as collateral to move up and get three second round picks. He already has two in hand. If he trades back with the 33rd pick, he could have enough firepower to get a third second round pick late in the round. CB, RB, OLB (or G) in second round. Boom!

  11. Nerd
    April 28, 2017 at 11:32 am

    Steely eyed assassin!

  12. Ryan
    April 28, 2017 at 11:43 am

    How anybody in their right mind could bash this move clearly knows nothing about football. If you think Foster or Watt is going to be a star that is a totally different conversation. Not the smartest move to reach for a guy with a second round grade (watt) and probably a legit reason 30 teams passed on foster. If TT liked either of those two that much he would have stayed put and took one. Why in gods name would you take somebody else you could have gotten at 33 or later. Would love to move back again if the deal is too good to pass up. I was convinced the first pick had to be a corner or pass rusher but the more I think about it I wouldn’t mind cook or mixon at this point. Only way I would be mad if he takes any other position on offense.

  13. Sam
    April 28, 2017 at 1:29 pm

    I have a hard time thinking Ted will take Mixon at 33, but I’d be OK with Cook. We haven’t had a home run hitter at running back since Ahman. As long as RG isn’t a problem, how would you defend Cook, Nelson, Adams, Cobb, Bennett and Hendricks?

  14. Ben
    April 28, 2017 at 2:06 pm

    I would’ve really wanted Forrest Lamp at 33, but with signing Jahri Evans, I think TT will wait until the mid rounds to beef up the O-Line.

    I don’t care what picks are used, but I’d like to see any of these guys become Day 2 Packers:

    Dalvin Cook
    Joe Mixon
    Malik McDowell
    Budda Baker
    Zach Cunningham
    Chidobe Awuzie
    Carl Lawson
    Derek Rivers
    Jordan Willis
    Tim Williams

  15. TJV
    April 28, 2017 at 2:49 pm

    I was hoping for a trade-down so I was happy when it was announced. I heard Jason Wilde say Ron Wolf used to say he really liked the fourth round (the second day of the draft started with the fourth round back then) because before the second day of the draft started he could reset his board. Of course that happens twice now and that’s the advantage of the Packers having #33 and #108. The usually very reserved Thompson said they’re ‘open for business’ regarding trading #33, so the chances of another trade-down are good. If they don’t go too far down that makes all kinds of sense if the conventional wisdom that this is a very deep draft turns out to be true.

    Jon Posch,
    Aaron Rodgers will turn 34 years-old in December. He has said his goal is to play until he’s 40 so I think spending significant draft capital on a QB to groom as his heir would be a huge mistake. If they drafted his replacement and Rodgers plays for 5-6 more seasons, his replacement would have to sit through his rookie deal having never been the starter. What they need is a backup QB who can ‘hold serve’ if/when Rodgers misses games. I think they have that player in Hundley. (BTW, I read an article recently which said they traded up into the 5th round to get him because they had a 3rd round grade on him.) Unless Rodgers has a career-ending injury Hundley will likely be gone in the next couple of seasons. Now is not the time to look for Aaron’s replacement. Regarding a QB playing til age 40: Tom Brady will turn 40 before this season.

    Mason Crosby will turn 33 right before the opener. No idea why you’d want to find his replacement. And unlike QB, they aren’t going to keep a second K on the roster.

  16. Thorny
    April 28, 2017 at 4:44 pm

    If you’re Ted, and you’ve seen that you can get your starting CB tandem via UDFA (see: Tramon Williams and Sam Shields) would you feel that much pressure to take one at 33 or anywhere up high knowing you burned a 1st and a 2nd and let 2nd rounder Hayward walk? Not sure why as fans we feel Ted needs to draft defense up high. He’s proven to do just as well late as early.

    RB is just as big of need and the O is our bread and butter. To add a Cook or Mixon is something that could really make our offense better. Like LaDainian Tomlinson said last night…he’s a fan of all purpose backs…not a big Fournette guy. He mentioned Mixon. That guy is as deadly out of the backfield catching it as he is running it. If you think Montgomery is a dual threat, you should see this guy.

    What star player on D are they getting at 33 or around 34-40? Of course, anyone can surprise, but, on paper, it doesn’t make a lot of sense to use your pick on a defender when you have some guys who appear to be truly special at RB. I’m sure we’ll draft CB somewhere.

    The more I ponder this the more I just want us to take the pick at 33, or at very least don’t trade it back more than a few picks. Sure, go ahead and deal Saturday’s opening pick (for a lot less) but not sure we should be passing on a star RB when two of the best are sitting right there. Of course, one could argue Foreman, Perine, or another guy makes sense in the 3rd. If Ted trades, I hope he doesn’t lose his shot at star power for us. It’s great we’re getting more picks but only if those picks actually turn into something for us on the field. Cook and Mixon have a much better shot than anyone else I see out there right now and RB is a big need, too.

    For those screaming for an edge rusher…we have over 20 million tied up in that position and last year’s 3rd rounder there, too. We have two high picks at CB and House. We have an oft injured 3rd round converted WR as our starting RB. Not sure how the perception is that we need a CB so badly with our first pick other than they sucked last year. 🙂

  17. TJV
    April 28, 2017 at 5:53 pm

    I agree about drafting one of the RBs, but I wouldn’t downplay the need for CBs and OLBs, particularly ones who can rush. The amount of money spent on OLB doesn’t matter, production – and in this case – reliability do. Both Matthews and Perry have had injury problems. The amount of “draft capital” spent on CBS doesn’t matter either, production does. It’s OK to hope Randall and Rollins rebound from horrible sophomore years but relying on that is a bad plan. One of the reasons I’d like another trade down (as long as they get one of the top 3 RBs left) is with more picks they can double at OLB and CB.

  18. speakeasy
    April 28, 2017 at 6:08 pm

    Oops, I meant Foreman in my previous post.

    I don’t question your logic in the post Thorny. I go back to RB being a position that you can get really good players in many different rounds (previous history of a lot of good backs in mid-late rounds shows that).

    Foreman, Perine, Kamara, Mixon etc could all be there later. A homerun threat would certainly change the game in GB. Would be fun to watch.

    I still remember Trung Canidate in 2000 for the Rams (drafted 31st) when they already had Faulk. He was a crazy fast and was going to take that offense to another level. I thought it was going to be an embarrassment of riches. Of course he flamed out. The inexactness of the draft!

    Whatever he does, TT needs to hit it on this draft. I do agree that if he trades back on the 33rd pick, it should not be more than 5-6 spots. It’s time to start adding some talent.

  19. Thorny
    April 28, 2017 at 6:41 pm

    One more quick one 20 minutes before go time…I just watched Dalvin’s LONG highlight reel. If we take Kevin King over Dalvin Cook, I’ll scream. This will be worse than Bulaga over Dez.

    Basically, if Ted drafts King that is an admission he screwed the pooch with Randall and Rollins. We really want the guy who couldn’t get right Randall and Rollins taking King? Why else would he be taking King if he hadn’t whiffed on R and R? So, we’re going to lose out on a star RB because Ted can’t properly use his 1st and 2nd rounders on CBs, and lets the wrong one go, so he should just try his luck again?

    Dalvin Cook is a STAR. Kevin King is the less heralded CB beneath Sidney Jones. No way the University of Washington has two Deion Sanders or Xavier Rhodes lining up outside. King is no star. My goodness I just loathe that we’re going to pick him because of Ted’s past mistakes and NEED.

    If we’re BPA, it’s Cook in a landslide. If it’s King…pure NEED pick.

    I’m the biggest fan in the world of a trade down if it’s going to be King. Sheldon Richardson is on the block. Get Sheldon in part of a trade down with the Jets and deal our first next year for Richard Sherman. Richardson and Sherman added to this defense? That’d be some progress. Much more than ANYTHING that could be accomplished in this draft.

    Ted, please, don’t be Ted. You smartly traded down. Don’t let it be King, but I guess it’s better with an extra 4 than just getting him straight at 29.

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