The Packers must’ve thought long and hard about using the franchise tag on Aaron Jones, the team’s best running back since Ahman Green. The cost wasn’t unreasonable ($8.6 million), and the offense is clearly better with No. 33 on the field. And while there’s always a chance the former UTEP star could re-sign before the start of free agency on Wednesday, that seems unlikely. Did GM Brian Gutekunst make the right decision? Ask me again in the middle of November, but as of right now, here are six reasons I think he did.
1) Why draft A.J. Dillon in the second round last April only to re-sign Jones? The former Boston College star is the kind of runner that needs to carry the ball at least 20 times a game. The goal of any offense with a big back is to pound away at the defense until it’s ready to surrender in the fourth quarter. With Jones still on the team, Dillon would be lucky to average 12 carries a game. That’s simply not enough to get him in a groove and/or to punish the defense.
2) Giving a huge second contract to a running back hasn’t worked out very well in recent years. Todd Gurley and Devonta Freeman, whom Matt LaFleur knows well from his days with the Rams and Falcons, respectively, along with Le’Veon Bell and David Johnson, are just a few of the players who were never the same after getting paid. And while it’s still too soon to place Ezekiel Elliott in this category, the Cowboys sure have to be sweating after watching him average a pedestrian 4.0 yards per carry last season. And all of those runners are much bigger than Jones.
3) Speaking of size, Jones never looks to avoid contact. That’s an admirable trait, but it’s also a problem for a back who weighs barely 200 pounds. And while the 26-year-old has been able to stay pretty healthy recently – only two missed games since 2018 – he suffered a serious ankle injury as a junior in college and multiple MCL sprains in his first two seasons in Green Bay. Watching him stagger off the field after taking a hit to the chest in the NFC championship had to further reinforce whatever reservations Gutekunst already had when it comes to Jones’ durability.
4) The Packers don’t need a star runner to put up 30 points a game. Aaron Rodgers’ greatness allowed the offense to function at a high level with Jamaal Williams on the field, and heck, the Packers won the Super Bowl in 2010 with Brandon Jackson and James Starks getting the majority of the carries. And that team had Mike McCarthy calling the plays. LaFleur learned under Kyle Shanahan, who turns unknowns into productive backs year after year.
5) There are plenty of good running backs available in every draft, and a team doesn’t have to spend a No. 1 pick to get one of them. In fact, of the top 20 rushers last season, only four were selected in the first round. And last season’s second-leading rookie rusher, James Robinson, wasn’t drafted at all. If Gutekunst knows what he’s doing, the Packers should be able to find a suitable replacement for Jones – picked 182nd overall in 2017 – on day 2 or 3.
6) While Gutekunst had every right to use the franchise tag, he had to know what it would mean in the months to come. The $8.6 million would’ve been charged to the cap immediately, and the Packers would’ve been lucky to see Jones before September. Agent Drew Rosenhaus, who was hired only a few months ago, wasn’t going to let his client participate in any offseason meetings or training camp practices, and he would’ve been extremely vocal about his displeasure. For an organization that values peace and tranquility, avoiding a long holdout had to be appealing.
According to multiple reports, the Packers are going to keep talking to Rosenhaus about a long-term deal. That makes sense, but it’s hard to imagine something getting done in the next few days. Jones didn’t risk injury all season only to compromise just hours before the start of free agency. And why would Gutekunst significantly improve his offer at the very last minute? In that scenario, he would’ve been better off using the franchise tag after all.
I have mixed feelings about whether to keep Jones. He’s a great player, but they do have Dillon and running backs can get old in a hurry. My problem would be letting Jones go and keeping players like Turner, P. Smith, Lowry, and paying the kicker $5 million.
I have a feeling this defense is never going to be good, so it makes sense to stockpile as much talent on offense as possible. It almost worked last season. Take away the two turnovers and the brain fart at the end of the half and we’re on our way to beating the Chiefs 41-35 in the Super Bowl.
Please jones is keep team and he is good play and move fast. Too many good play.
I should’ve known Jones would re-sign the minute I posted this story. My opinion hasn’t changed, but at least the contract seems reasonable. I’m guessing the cap number will be low in 2021 and the Packers will have an easy out after the 2022 season.