They, whoever “they” are, say it takes three years to judge a draft. That means it’s now fair to critique Brian Gutekunst’s first class of rookies. The team’s longtime scout and first-year general manager went into the 2018 draft with a dozen picks, including the 14th overall. By the time the weekend was over, he made three trades and selected 11 players. The following is a look at how he did (if you’re reading this post on a cell phone, you’ll probably have to turn the phone horizontally in order to read the chart below in its entirety):
| ROUND | PLAYER | ANALYSIS | GRADE | COMMENT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CB Jaire Alexander | Gutekunst traded down with the Saints, acquired a No. 1 pick in 2019 and still got an All-Pro. | 95 | Perfection for Gutekunst. The Packers got a great player and a future first-round pick. This is like a baseball player hitting a grand slam in his first at-bat. |
| 2 | CB Josh Jackson | Looked like a possible steal at the time, but the stiffness that worried some scouts has proven to be a huge liability against NFL receivers. | 65 | The player is still around, but that's the best you can say about this pick. Jackson will be hard-pressed to see a fourth season in Green Bay. |
| 3 | ILB Oren Burks | Gutekunst traded up in an effort to add talent at a long ignored position. In return, he got an injury-prone player who's failed every season to hold onto a starting job. | 67 | Burks does a pretty good job covering kicks, but you don't trade up into the third round for a special teams player. |
| 4 | WR J'Mon Moore | Ran good routes and got open in practice, but couldn't catch the ball. Needless to say, that's a problem for a receiver. | 60 | Fourth-round picks aren't expected to be stars, but they are expected to last for more than one season. |
| 5 | OL Cole Madison | Sat out rookie season to deal with personal issues. An injury ended his 2019 season in November, and he was cut last summer without ever playing a game for Green Bay. | 60 | How much to blame Gutekunst is debatable, but the NFL is a bottom-line business and this pick turned out to be worthless. |
| 5 | P JK Scott | Talent is obvious but results have been lacking. Career net of 38.6 yards is actually lower than the punter he replaced. | 76 | Punters drafted in the fifth round have to better than average, and that's what Scott's been for the first three seasons of his career. |
| 5 | WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling | Inconsistency is frustrating, but he's averaged almost 18 yards on 97 catches and scored 10 TDs. | 83 | The Packers have gotten more than can rightly be expected from a player picked late in round 5. |
| 6 | WR Equanimeous St. Brown | Flashed as a rookie but hasn't progressed much since then. Caught 7 passes last season, including 2 in the playoffs. | 73 | Any sixth-round pick still around after three seasons can't be considered a mistake. |
| 7 | DL James Looney | Showed so little on defense that the Packers moved him to tight end. Couldn't play there either. | 60 | Can't give a failing grade to any player picked this late, but it was tempting. |
| 7 | LS Hunter Bradley | Done an OK job for 3 seasons, but Gutekunst didn't need to spend a draft pick for an OK long snapper. Will be challenged in training camp this summer. | 70 | Gutekunst decided to get cute here, and based on his other two picks in this round, maybe he should've drafted three long snappers. |
| 7 | OLB Kendall Donnerson | Small school pass rusher who never flashed in two summers with the Packers. The game was too big for him. | 60 | It's unfair to expect much from the 248th pick, but it's fair to expect that player to at least look like he belongs in the NFL. |
The final grade for this draft is 69.9. That would be considered below average in school, and the only reason the number isn’t lower is due to what happened in round 1. By trading from 14 to 27 to 18, Gutekunst acquired a first-round pick in 2019 from the New Orleans Saints and still managed to get a player who’s now one of the top handful of corners in the National Football League. That’s how you work the draft. Hall of Fame general manager Ron Wolf, who hired Gutekunst in 1998, would’ve been extremely proud. Unfortunately, it all went downhill from there.
This was the fourth draft in five years that would have to be considered disappointing. The prior quartet (2014 – 2017) included numerous swings and misses on days 1 and 2 (defensive linemen Khyri Thornton and Montravius Adams, cornerbacks Damarious Randall and Quinten Rollins, wide receiver Ty Montgomery, tackle Jason Spriggs, and safety Josh Jones). There were only three home runs (wide receiver Davante Adams, nose tackle Kenny Clark and running back Aaron Jones) and a handful of singles and doubles (safety Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, tight end Richard Rodgers, linebackers Kyler Fackrell and Blake Martinez, defensive end Dean Lowry, and running back Jamaal Williams).
It’s almost unheard of for a team to be able to survive such a long stretch of poor drafting, yet the Packers have gone 71-40-1 and played in four NFC title games since 2014. That’s what having a great quarterback means in the NFL.
But even with Aaron Rodgers creating enough magic to keep Green Bay among the best teams in the league since 2014, there was still a price to be paid for missing on so many early picks. Spending nearly a quarter billion dollars on free agents in 2018 and 2019 is a big reason why the Packers will be dealing with serious salary cap issues for the next few years. It’s doubtful Gutekunst would’ve gone on such a spending spree if those drafts would’ve been more successful. For example, there would’ve been far less need for corner Tramon Williams ($10 million), tackle Billy Turner ($28 million), and safety Adrian Amos ($36 million) had Randall, Spriggs, and Clinton-Dix been better players.
Needless to say, the Packers have to start drafting better. Aaron Rodgers will turn 38 in December, and if this franchise is to have any chance of remaining among the elite in the post-12 era, it will need to add a lot more talent in the next five years than it’s added in the past five years. It’s crazy to think that over a five-year stretch from 2006 to 2010, Ted Thompson drafted wide receivers Greg Jennings, James Jones, and Jordy Nelson, tight end Jermichael Finley, tackle Bryan Bulaga, guards Josh Sitton and T.J. Lang, outside linebacker Clay Matthews, and nose tackle B.J. Raji – not to mention inside linebackers A.J. Hawk and Desmond Bishop, and safety Morgan Burnett.
Nobody is expecting Gutekunst – with a front office that has Jon-Eric Sullivan, John Wojciechowski, and Matt Malaspina instead of John Schneider, John Dorsey, and Reggie McKenzie – to be as good as Thompson was in his first six drafts, but he’ll need to be darn close to keep the Packers from falling off a ledge once Aaron Rodgers departs.[yop_poll id=”5″]
Gutekunst was Wolf-like in the first round and Sherman-like after that.