Draft Preview: Mock 1.0

I‘ve never been a big fan of mock drafts, but people seem to love them. So here’s my first effort at predicting what will happen next week. The Packers pick 29th, and while GM Brian Gutekunst will talk about taking the best player available, the reality is he’s going to try to fill a need – just like every GM does every year. That means expect a really big guy or a really fast guy to be the choice when Roger Goodell steps to the podium in Cleveland.

The following are the 28 players I project to be off the board when the Packers finally get around to picking at No. 29 – assuming, of course, that Gutekunst doesn’t make a trade in the opening round for the fourth consecutive April:

 

POSITIONPLAYERCOLLEGE
QBJustin FieldsOhio St.
QBMac JonesAlabama
QBTrey LanceNorth Dakota St.
QBTrevor LawrenceClemson
QBZach WilsonBYU
TEKyle PittsFlorida
WRRashod BatemanMinnesota
WRJaMarr ChaseClemson
WRDeVonta SmithAlabama
WRJaylen WaddleAlabama
OTChristian DarrisawVirginia Tech
OTTeven JenkinsOklahoma St.
OTJalen MayfieldMichigan
OTPenei SewellOregon
OTRashawn SlaterNorthwestern
OTAlijah Vera TuckerUSC
DEAzeez OjulariGeorgia
DEKwity PayeMichigan
DEJaelan PhillipsMiami
DEGregory RousseauMiami
ILBZaven CollinsTulsa
LBJ. Owusu-KoramoahNotre Dame
LBMicah ParsonsPenn St.
CBCaleb FarleyVirginia Tech
CBJaycee HornSouth Carolina
DBTrevon MoehrigTCU
CBGreg NewsomeNorthwestern
CBPatrick SurtainAlabama


Assuming the above 28 players are no longer options for the Packers at 29, here are 13 more players who would be:

 

POSITIONPLAYERCOLLEGE
RBNajee HarrisAlabama
WRTerrace MarshallLSU
WRElijah MooreOle Miss
WRRondale MoorePurdue
WRKadarius ToneyFlorida
OTSamuel CosmiTexas
OLLandon DickersonAlabama
OTLiam EichenbergNotre Dame
DLChristian BarmoreAlabama
DEJayson OwehPenn St.
LBJamin DavisKentucky
CBTyson CampbellGeorgia
CBAsante SamuelFlorida St.


Gutekunst is unpredictable, but there’s no chance he’s taking a running back at No. 29 after re-signing Aaron Jones for $48 million and drafting A.J. Dillon in the second round last year. So forget about Harris. And while the Packers could definitely use help at wide receiver and inside linebacker, the last time either of those positions went in round 1, George W. Bush was in his first term as president. So remove Marshall, both Moores, Toney, and Davis from consideration. It’s never easy to pass up an explosive edge rusher, but Gutekunst spent nearly $120 million and a No. 1 pick (12th overall) on Za’Darius Smith, Preston Smith, and Rashan Gary in the past 24 months. Oweh might be very tempting, but it feels like overkill. That leaves, quite conveniently, the three positions that appear to be the Packers’ biggest needs heading into the 2021 season – offensive line, defensive line, and cornerback.

Dickerson is a terrific player, and he’d be an ideal replacement for Corey Linsley, but I just don’t see Gutekunst taking a center this early. Recent Pro Bowlers Linsley and Scott Wells were late-round picks. As for Cosmi and Eichenberg, there could be comparable tackles available when the Packers pick next at 62. And then there were three.

Samuel is a better corner than Campbell, but his lack of size makes me question whether Gutekunst would take him at this point in the draft. And while it’s true he chose another small corner in round 1 two years ago, Jaire Alexander was a special talent who also weighed about 15 pounds more than Samuel. Size isn’t an issue with Campbell (6-2, 190), but he lacks twitch, and that’s a big reason why Josh Jackson has been a disappointment. The memory of that mistake still has to be pretty fresh in Gutekunst’s mind. Barmore is blessed with the talent to be a top-10 pick in most any draft, so the fact that he’s even in the discussion at the end of the first round says a lot.


THE PICK

While I still think it’s more likely that Gutekunst moves up for a corner (Newsome or Farley) that slides into the low to mid-20s, if he stays put at 29, Barmore would seem to make the most sense. Sure he’s a boom or bust player, but a team coming off consecutive trips to the NFC title game can afford to roll the dice late in the first round.

Barmore is more talented than Montravius Adams, but his college tape reminded me of what I thought while watching the former Auburn star prior to the 2017 draft – why isn’t this player better? I saw flashes of greatness from both – more from Barmore – but neither dominated inferior opponents on a consistent basis. Adams, who was drafted late in the third round, went on to play four uninspiring seasons for the Packers before signing a modest one-year contract with the New England Patriots last month. Barmore will almost certainly be more successful than Adams at the next level, and that’s why he’ll be selected a lot earlier. How much more is the question?


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Michael Rodney

Packers Notes is the creation of Michael Rodney, who has been writing about the Green Bay Packers for over 30 years. His first blog, Packer Update, hit the internet in 2004. Before becoming a public educator, Rodney worked as a journalist for a couple of newspapers in his home state of New Jersey and covered the Philadelphia Eagles for WTXF-TV. He's had numerous articles on the Packers published, and he's been featured on both television and radio over the years.

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Steve
Steve
April 24, 2021 7:26 pm

Everything you said makes sense other than we should roll the dice on a boom or bust prospect for our #1 choice. I would take Liam Eichenberg and plug him into RT for the next 10 years. He’s been a multi-year starter for Notre Dame and is one of the safest picks in the draft. He’s an instant starter with size and mobility.

I don’t trust Gutey after last year’s draft, but Eichenberg is my choice.

joe
joe
April 26, 2021 7:41 am
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