The Packers (7-2) will meet the Seahawks (3-5) for the eighth time in the past eight seasons. It’s almost beginning to feel as if Seattle is an honorary member of the NFC North. If Green Bay is going to get back on the winning track, here are five keys to victory:
1) STAY WITH THE RUN
The Packers have arguably the best 1-2 punch in the league at running back, and yet Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon have combined for only 192 carries this season. In comparison, 70-year-old Mark Ingram has already carried the ball 199 times for Houston and New Orleans. Matt LaFleur and Aaron Rodgers worry too much about where the safeties are lined up. They need to just run the ball, especially against a Seattle defense that’s giving up 128 yards a game. The best way to beat a team quarterbacked by Russell Wilson is to control the clock and keep him off the field.
2) INVOLVE THE TIGHT END
The Packers weren’t throwing much to the tight end even before Robert Tonyan suffered a season-ending knee injury late last month, but if there were ever a game to change that trend, Sunday would be it. The Seahawks are giving up over five catches and 50 yards to opposing tight ends each week, and they might even have trouble covering slow-footed Josiah Deguara and even slower-footed Marcedes Lewis. Rodgers has always preferred throwing to wide receivers, but if the tight ends are going to be open in the middle of the field, he needs to take advantage.
3) DON’T LET RUSS COOK
The bad news is that Wilson will be returning after missing the past four games. The good news is that Joe Barry’s defense has played Kyler Murray and Patrick Mahomes in the past couple of weeks. The even better news is that those two dynamic quarterbacks were held to a combined total of 34 points. If healthy, Wilson might be an even bigger challenge because he’ll have more weapons than Murray, and he’s more athletic than Mahomes. Green Bay’s pass rushers must once again stay disciplined, and the corners must stick with receivers until the whistle blows.
4) SLOW DOWN RECEIVERS
The Packers have faced a number of elite wide receivers this season (San Francisco’s Deebo Samuel, Cincinnati’s Ja’Marr Chase, Washington’s Terry McLaurin, and Kansas City’s Tyreek Hill), but they’ve yet to go up against two on the same team. That’ll change later this afternoon when stars DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett face a banged-up secondary missing All-Pro Jaire Alexander and perhaps rookie Eric Stokes (knee). A really good plan from Barry and a strong pass rush is the best way to keep Kevin King, Chandon Sullivan, and Rasul Douglas from having a long day.
5) CLEAN UP SPECIAL TEAMS
Packers fans will never forget the fake field goal and the botched onside kick that allowed the Seahawks to beat the Packers in the playoffs in 2014? Well, Green Bay’s special teams are even worse this season. Kicking a field goal and catching a punt have turned into hold your breath moments. If last week’s debacle in Kansas City didn’t light a fire under everybody’s butt, nothing will. The Packers don’t need to be great on special teams, they simply need to be competent. That’s the extremely low bar first-year coordinator Maurice Drayton will try to clear on Sunday.
PREDICTION: The two quarterbacks make this a tough game to predict. How will Wilson play in his first game since undergoing finger surgery last month? And assuming Rodgers plays, how will he perform after not practicing for two weeks due to COVID? The Packers are the superior team, and they’re at Lambeau – where they’ve won nine straight times in this series – but today’s game is more important to the visitors, who’ll be fighting for their playoff lives. Digging out of a 3-5 hole is difficult enough; digging out from 3-6 would be next to impossible. It’s never smart to dismiss desperation when it comes to the National Football League.
The Packers are favored by 3.5 points, and they should be able to cover that number. Still, there’s something about this game that has me worried. Seattle is healthy, well-rested, and desperate. Would I wager money on the Seahawks? No way, but they do stand a real chance. GREEN BAY 27-24 (Season record: 5-4 straight-up; 2-6-1 vs. spread)
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