The Packers have until Monday at noon to exclusively negotiate with De’Vondre Campbell before the All-Pro inside linebacker is free to talk to the other 31 teams in the NFL. And if history is any indication, Campbell won’t be returning to Green Bay should he make it to the open market. In fact, the last star player to re-sign after dipping his toe into the free agency waters was Chad Clifton in 2010. The veteran offensive tackle even visited Washington before coming home.
The late Ted Thompson, who was the general manager of the Packers from 2005 to 2017, rarely let a key player get to free agency. He often signed his stars to extensions well before their contracts were set to expire. This strategy was used to keep, among others, quarterback Aaron Rodgers, wide receivers Davante Adams and Jordy Nelson, left tackle David Bakhtiari, center Corey Linsley, defensive end Mike Daniels, outside linebacker Clay Matthews, and corner Tramon Williams from testing free agency. It also kept their prices down a bit, as the players sacrificed money for security.
On the rare occasions when Thompson couldn’t get a deal done well ahead of time, he wound up paying top dollar to keep key players. For example, cornerback Sam Shields ($39M/4 years), wide receiver Randall Cobb ($40M/4 years), and linebacker Nick Perry ($60M/5 years) re-signed on the eve of free agency, and all three contracts were probably more than Thompson wanted to pay. But he bit the bullet and got the deals done to keep players he deemed too valuable to lose.
It’s too late for Gutekunst to get a team-friendly deal done with Campbell, so he’s going to have to pay top dollar – or very close to it – to retain the best inside linebacker to play for the Packers this century. The price could be in the neighborhood of $10 million a year, and while that seems a bit pricey for a soon-to-be 29-year-old who only nine months ago was unwanted and unsigned, there’s really no choice. To guarantee Rodgers over $150 million in order to make a couple more runs at the Super Bowl and not keep Campbell would be foolish. That’s how important he is to the team.
The Packers made real strides on defense last season. In fact, that side of the ball almost single-handedly won the divisional round playoff game. It wasn’t all because of Campbell, but he was the No. 1 reason for the improvement. Having an inside linebacker who’s able to run sideline to sideline, take on offensive linemen at the point of attack, and stay with tight ends in coverage is a rarity. It’s no coincidence that the three best defenses in recent memory (1985 Bears, 2000 Ravens, and 2013 Seahawks) all had great players at this position (Mike Singletary, Ray Lewis, and Bobby Wagner).
While nobody is comparing Campbell to a pair of Hall of Famers and a future Hall of Famer, his impact can’t be overemphasized. The run defense was better despite Gutekunst adding only a raw fifth-round draft pick (T.J. Slaton) to the D-line in the offseason. The pass defense was better even though All-Pro edge rusher Za’Darius Smith and All-Pro corner Jaire Alexander spent a combined 29 weeks on injured reserve. The defense also gave up two fewer points per game.
Campbell made a ton of plays last season, but just as importantly, he made others around him better. His partner at inside linebacker, Krys Barnes, was more effective in his second season. Campbell’s ability to cover ground made Barnes’ lack of speed less of a liability. The corners also benefited from Campbell’s length and ability to get depth in his drops. There were numerous times when quarterbacks bypassed open receivers because there was no clear throwing lane.
Should Campbell sign elsewhere, Gutekunst would probably look to replace him with a less expensive free agent. Arizona’s Jordan Hicks, Las Vegas’ Cory Littleton, and Cleveland’s Anthony Walker are among the possibilities. Maybe one of those players would enjoy the same kind of success playing in Green Bay next season as Campbell did in 2021, but that’s highly unlikely. For one thing, those players aren’t as talented as Campbell. For another, lightning doesn’t strike twice.
Unless another team makes an outrageous offer, Gutekunst needs to find a way to keep Campbell – even if it means overpaying. Will there be cap space available? As former Packers’ executive Andrew Brandt likes to say, there’s always a way. Releasing overpaid relics like Mason Crosby, Marcedes Lewis, and Randall Cobb would be a good place to start. They currently count over $11.M against the cap, and for some reason, all three were still on the roster as of late Friday night.
Thompson would never have allowed a player as valuable as Campbell to get away, especially in a Super Bowl or bust season. Gutekunst worked under the late Packers Hall of Famer for over a decade. We’ll soon find out how much he learned.
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I was hopeful of something getting done a week or so ago, but now I’m expecting Campbell to leave. That would be a shame. It was a pleasure watching an ILB make plays at the line of scrimmage as opposed to seven yards down the field.
$10 mil feels like too much, but you can’t overstate what he did for the defense.
I watched a replay of a GB game with Blake Martinez the other day and it’s amazing how I just got used to opposing running backs carrying a linebacker for 5 yards. Didn’t see anywhere near as much of that this past season.
If necessary, I’d give Campbell a deal similar to the one signed by Aaron Jones. On paper, $48M for 4; in reality, about $19M for 2.
Suggestion for an article: How being in cap hell is affecting the Saints, a topic that should interest Packer fans since this is what they can expect.
MG – That’s a good idea. I’m immersed in free agency now, and I’ll be getting into draft prep soon, but that’s a subject I could look into later in the offseason.
Agreed. He has to be far and away the highest priority. If he leaves then they have to draft an ILB in the first two rounds, and given their need for WR, DL, potentially TE, that’s not ideal.
The only thing that has me wondering if it might be fine is Joe Barry – coincidence that the Packers finally find a good-to-great ILB is when Barry, a linebackers guy, comes aboard? That was almost uncanny in timing.
The timing is uncanny, but Campbell was also the most talented veteran inside linebacker this team has had in a long time. Some of it might’ve been Barry, but I’m thinking most of it was Campbell just being a pretty talented player and the Packers getting lucky.
signed.. 5 years/$50M.. looks like Campbell is part of core for the Packers now.. GPG!