Daxton Hill doesn't show up in many mock drafts as a potential first-round pick by the Packers, but he should. The more you watch the former Michigan star on tape, the more it makes sense to include him among the possibilities at No. 28.
Hill was a hybrid safety/nickel in college, and he has the skill set to play literally any position in the secondary. He's blessed with good length (32 1/4 inch arms), outstanding speed (4.38), and very fluid hips. He reminds me of a better version of Darnell Savage, whom general manager Brian Gutekunst traded up nine spots to take 21st overall in the 2019 draft.
While Hill and Savage are similar athletes, the former is more instinctive in coverage. Hill seems to understand zone concepts better. He does a nice job of reading the QB's eyes and playing the ball in front of him. Savage, on the other hand, doesn't always react quickly enough, which often results in letting receivers and tight ends run past him post-catch. And while both players are a bit undersized for safety, Hill is better than Savage at wrapping up and securing tackles.
Speaking of Savage, the Packers have to decide by early next month whether to pick up his fifth-year option worth just under $8 million. What seemed like a mere formality a year ago is now very much a question after the former Maryland star regressed a bit in his third season. Drafting Hill would allow Gutekunst more time to decide on Savage's future in 2023 and beyond. But even if the option is picked up before the draft, it shouldn't make Hill any less of a possibility at 28.
Below are a couple of plays from a game against Nebraska last season that show Hill's versatility and athleticism. In the first video, Hill (#30) is lined up in the slot. He has no trouble covering 6-foot-9 tight end Austin Allen in the middle of the field and then makes a spectacular interception. In the second video, Hill lines up outside and runs stride for stride with Samori Touri, one of the more explosive wide receivers in the upcoming draft. This play clinched the win for the Wolverines.
Not only would Hill provide protection in the event that Savage and/or fellow starting safety Adrian Amos isn't around in 2023, but he'd be able to help right away in the dime package. Hill could be the fourth corner along with All-Pro Jaire Alexander, Eric Stokes, and Rasul Douglas, or he could play deep safety, allowing Savage to line up in the slot. Either way, he'd solve the problem of who'd be the sixth defensive back. Henry Black, who wasn't tendered, filled that role in 2021.
Does it make sense to draft a likely backup in what's clearly a Super Bowl or bust season? The answer to that question would typically be no, but because of how often defensive coordinator Joe Barry likes to employ six defensive backs, Hill could be on the field for 600 snaps. That would be almost as many snaps as running back Aaron Jones played in 2021.
The expectation is for the Packers to draft a wide receiver and a lineman or edge rusher in the first round, and while filling big needs is important in any draft, selecting the best players is more important. Depending on how things fall, there's a chance Hill will be the BPA at 28. If he is, and Gutekunst decides not to trade down and acquire more picks, he should give Hill serious consideration. He'd help the defense right away and provide valuable insurance for the future. You can't ask for much more from a player picked late in round 1 - even if that player doesn't catch passes or sack quarterbacks.
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People like to compare Savage to Nick Collins, and Collins didn’t become a star until his fourth year. I think this is a make or break season for Savage.
I believe in Savage’s talent. Of course, prepping for Amos/Savage potentially being gone after next year makes sense.
Interesting take, Michael. Thanks for helping me get prepared in case Gutey does go with him or some other player in the secondary. After Rasul re-signed I was happy to think that for the first time in many years we wouldn’t have to worry about drafting a DB in the first two rounds. To me, the big question is how Barry sees the slot-nickel corner position. Is that Rasul? Jaire? What’s intriguing about Hill is to have a twitchy guy in the slot, but where does that leave either Rasul or Stokes? After reading your piece I won’t be devastated if they draft Hill – but will be disappointed. I’d be much happier, position-wise at least, with WR, OL, ILB, DE, or EDGE. Those are five positions where the player drafted could very well be a starter come WK 1. Given Gutey’s new-found relationship with Rodgers I’m thinking WR and OL for Round 1.
I have heard he’s climbing up draft boards and I think he is worth considering at 22 if Olave is gone.
You can never have enough defensive backs and pass rushers in today’s game. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Gutekunst draft one of each before the 4th round.
if the Packers miss on their db/safety in the first round, maybe they would consider Alontae Taylor of Tennessee on Day 2.. i thought Taylor showed worthy talent on his tape and he ran a 4.36 forty.