Rookie Receivers Rarely Excel

Romeo Doubs has been the talk of training camp through two weeks, and with fellow rookie Christian Watson still out with a knee injury, his importance to the offense increases with each passing day. The Packers really need the fourth-round pick from Nevada to make an immediate impact this season, and while that’s certainly possible, the odds are against it.




Twenty-one wide receivers have been drafted in the fourth round since 2017. Three didn’t play as rookies, and the 18 others averaged 18 catches, 206 yards, and 1.5 touchdowns. The best season was produced by Amon-Ra St. Brown in 2021. The former USC star caught 90 passes for 912 yards and five touchdowns for the Lions. None of the 17 other receivers caught more than 43 passes (Cleveland’s Antonio Callaway) or had more than 599 yards (Buffalo’s Gabriel Davis).

The following is a chart that lists the production of every wide receiver drafted in the fourth round from 2017 through 2021:

YEARPLAYERYARDS
2021Amon-Ra St. Brown90 for 912 and 5
2020Gabriel Davis35 for 599 and 7
2018Antonio Callaway43 for 586 and 5
2017Dede Westbrook27 for 339 and 1
2018Keke Coutee28 for 287 and 1
2018DaeSean Hamilton30 for 243 and 2
2017Mack Hollins16 for 226 and 1
2017Josh Reynolds11 for 104 and 1
2017Chad Hansen9 for 94 and 0
2019Riley Ridley6 for 69 and 0
2017Josh Malone6 for 63 and 1
2021Dez Fitzpatrick5 for 49 and 1
2021Jaelon Darden6 for 43 and 0
2017Ryan Switzer6 for 41 and 0
2021Tylan Wallace2 for 23 and 0
2017Jehu Chesson2 for 18 and 0
2018J'Mon Moore2 for 15 and 0
2020A. Candy-Golden1 for 3 and 0
2019Hakeem Butler0
2019Gary Jennings0
2018Jaleel Scott0

As you can see, not only do very few wide receivers picked in the fourth round have impactful first seasons, but even fewer go on to have productive careers in the NFL. While St Brown and Davis look like the real deals, Callaway never approached his rookie numbers again. The rest of the list is filled with journeymen (Westbrook, Reynolds, and Coutee) and busts (Hollins, Malone, Switzer, Chesson, Hansen, Hamilton, Scott, Moore, Butler, Jennings, Ridley, and Gandy-Golden). The jury is still out on the Class of ’21 (Fitzpatrick, Darden, and Wallace), but early returns aren’t particularly encouraging.

Obviously, none of this means Doubs can’t have an impactful rookie season and a long and successful career in the NFL. But it does mean that Packers fans would be wise to temper their expectations for the 22-year-old. While it’s true that some wide receivers have had major impacts right away, almost every one of them was drafted in the first three rounds.

The following is a chart that lists all the wide receivers who’ve had over 800 yards receiving in their rookie seasons since 2012:

YEARPLAYERYARDSROUND
2021Ja'Marr Chase1,4551st
2021DeVonta Smith9161st
2021Amon-Ra St. Brown9124th
2021Jaylen Waddle1,0151st
2020Chase Claypool8732nd
2020Tee Higgins9082nd
2020Jerry Jeudy8561st
2020CeeDee Lamb9351st
2019A.J. Brown1,0512nd
2019Terry McLaurin9193rd
2019DK Metcalf9002nd
2019Deebo Samuel8022nd
2018Calvin Ridley8211st
2017Cooper Kupp8693rd
2017JuJu Smith-Schuster9172nd
2016Michael Thomas1,1372nd
2015Amari Cooper1,0701st
2015Willie Snead984UDFA
2014Odell Beckham Jr.1,3051st
2014Kelvin Benjamin1,0081st
2014Mike Evans1,0511st
2014Jordan Matthews8722nd
2014Sammy Watkins9821st
2013Keenan Allen1,0462nd
2013DeAndre Hopkins8022nd
2012Justin Blackmon8651st

As you can see, of the 27 rookie wide receivers who’ve had over 800 yards in the past 10 years, 23 were picked in the first two rounds, and two others were selected in round 3. The only players with over 800 yards not drafted during Days 1 and 2 were the aforementioned St. Brown and Willie Snead, who signed as an undrafted free agent in 2014. In total, 294 wide receivers have been drafted since 2012. That means fewer than nine percent had over 800 yards as rookies.

In the long and iconic history of the Packers, only two rookies ever had over 800 yards receiving in a season. Billy Howton accomplished the feat in 1952, and Pro Football Hall of Famer James Lofton did it two and a half decades later. That’s the entire list. In fact, only six other rookie wide receivers even eclipsed 500 yards – Max McGee in 1954, Boyd Dowler in 1959, Sterling Sharpe in 1988, Greg Jennings in 2006, James Jones in 2007, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling in 2018.

So what should we realistically expect from Doubs? Well, he should do better than the average rookie picked in the fourth round. Most of those players weren’t on teams with an MVP quarterback and without a legitimate No. 1 at the position. Still, the odds of him getting to 800 yards is unlikely. And while history suggests Watson has a much better chance of having an impactful rookie season, history doesn’t take into account him missing the opening weeks of camp.

 

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Michael Rodney

Packers Notes is the creation of Michael Rodney, who has been writing about the Green Bay Packers for over 30 years. His first blog, Packer Update, hit the internet in 2004. Before becoming a public educator, Rodney worked as a journalist for a couple of newspapers in his home state of New Jersey and covered the Philadelphia Eagles for WTXF-TV. He's had numerous articles on the Packers published, and he's been featured on both television and radio over the years.

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Justin
Justin
August 9, 2022 9:35 pm

It’s definitely fair to temper expectations. But if the kid can play, it doesn’t matter where he was drafted

So – curious what your impression is after watching him in pads against really solid nfl corners…

Joe Melvin
Joe Melvin
August 10, 2022 8:46 am

Looking at the difference in builds got me curious about their hand sizes. A quick search found that Doubs has 10″ hands while Watson has 10 1/8″ hands which are towards the top of the draft eligible wide receivers that I found. Samori Toure on the other hand (pun intended) has 9 3/8
hands. Not sure there’s a point to this but I found it interesting.

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