New England on Sunday will be the first of four consecutive games against teams Green Bay will be heavily favored to beat (the Giants, the Jets, and Washington are up next). The schedule gets much more difficult beginning with a trip to Buffalo in Week 8, so piling up wins now is a good idea. Patriots’ second-year quarterback Mac Jones is unlikely to play due to a high ankle sprain. He’d be replaced by Brian Hoyer, who’s started two games and thrown only 60 passes since 2017.
If the Packers are to get to 3-1 and win their 15th regular season game in a row at Lambeau Field, here are five keys to victory:
1) WIN THE TURNOVER BATTLE
The Packers are 30-0 under coach Matt LaFleur (0-0 this season) when they win the turnover battle, so this will remain at the top of the keys to victory list at least until the zero is gone. Bill Belichick teams typically take care of the ball, but the Patriots are minus-4 through three games. Jones has already thrown five interceptions, including three last week against Baltimore. If Hoyer starts, he’ll look to get rid of the ball quickly and throw a lot of very short passes. Whether it’s a rusty Hoyer or a gimpy Jones, this would be the perfect week for Joe Barry’s defense to be more aggressive than usual.
2) SLOW DOWN THE RUN
Regardless of who’s under center, the Patriots are going to feature Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson against a defense that has been inconsistent against the run. The duo has combined for 305 yards on 64 carries this season. The Packers did a great job last Sunday against Leonard Fournette after being gashed by David Montgomery the prior week. The biggest difference was the play of the defensive line. Dean Lowry, Jarran Reed, and T.J. Slaton were much stouter versus the Bears, which kept athletic inside linebackers De’Vondre Campbell and Quay Walker from being hung up in traffic.
3) MAKE 87 THE NEW 17
While it’s obviously ridiculous to compare rookie Romeo Doubs to perennial Pro Bowler Davante Adams, it makes perfect sense to treat the fourth-round pick as the team’s No. 1 option in the passing game. Doubs is clearly the best receiver on the roster. That means scheming to get the ball in his hands as often as possible. The former Nevada star may not run in the 4.3s, but his vision after the catch and ability to make tacklers miss in the open field makes him a threat to score from anywhere on the field. It will be a mistake if Doubs doesn’t touch the ball at least 10 times on Sunday.
4) INVOLVE THE TIGHT ENDS
Green Bay’s four tight ends have combined for 141 receiving yards through three games. That’s a good day’s work for Travis Kelce. Baltimore’s Mark Andrews caught eight passes against the Patriots last week, and while Robert Tonyan isn’t nearly as good a player, it’s time for LaFleur and quarterback Aaron Rodgers to get him involved in the offense. Young inside linebackers Ja’Whaun Bentley and especially Mack Wilson are vulnerable in coverage. It’s time to put the naked bootleg to rest – Stevie Wonder could see it coming these days – and give Tonyan a few chances to stretch the field.
5) KEEP BEING SPECIAL
Green Bay’s special teams have been better than the offense and the defense after three games. That’s a tribute to Rich Bisaccia. Who knew hiring a well-respected coordinator would make such a dramatic difference? Sarcasm aside, every facet of special teams is improved from a year ago. It doesn’t hurt that Gutekunst acquired a reliable punter and three veterans with extensive experience covering kicks in the offseason. The Patriots are always very good on special teams. This would’ve been a huge mismatch in previous decades years, but there’s a decent chance it won’t be come Sunday afternoon.
PREDICTION: The Packers are a much better team. How much better depends on who starts at QB for the Patriots. Still, underestimating Belichick is never a good idea, especially after a bad loss. He’ll have his players well prepared and ready to battle for 60 minutes. It’ll be up to LaFleur and Barry to meet the challenge. Otherwise, what should be a comfortable win could stay uncomfortably competitive into the fourth quarter.
I don’t like giving 9.5 points to any team coached by Belichick, but the Packers have no business being involved in a close game if Hoyer starts. Assuming he does, I like the home favorite. GREEN BAY 26-13 (Season record: 2-1; 1-2 vs. spread)
NOTE: Mac Jones was officially ruled out Friday afternoon, so 36-year-old Brian Hoyer will start at quarterback for the Patriots.
this should be a good test for the LaFleur coaching staff. it might be tempting for the squad to let down a bit after the big road win against the Bucs. that said, there is a lot to gain for the Packers in this contest. the Packers can show that they can play consistently and play at a high level. the Packers can continue to employ their new pass-catchers to facilitate more chemistry between the rookie wideouts and AR12. the Packers can use their tight ends more in the pass game, add another element to their threat list, and make the Packer offense even more balanced and harder to defend against. finally, the defense can show again that it is the kind of unit that can carry the club in January.
I remember GB being interested in bringing Hoyer in back during the Hundley year. Hoyer is a pro QB who has the ability to play well for a short stretch.
That being said, GB wins this one.
thanks, great article