Green Bay scored 197 points and averaged 394 yards en route to a 5-1 start in 2020. Two years later, the numbers are 107, 348, and 3-3. So what's wrong with the offense? Sometimes the right answer is also the most obvious one. These current Packers aren't nearly as talented, even though six of the players are the same, including quarterback Aaron Rodgers.
The talent drain includes the staff, where two coaches with no previous experience in their current job (offensive coordinator Adam Stenavich and passing game coordinator Jason Vrable) replaced a pair of far more experienced coaches who left for better opportunities elsewhere (Nathaniel Hackett and Luke Getsy). A similar change occurred with the line, where Stenavich's promotion to OC moved his former assistant (Luke Butkus) into a more prominent role.
While the coaching changes are almost certainly a factor in the offense's slow start, it's always the players that matter most in the National Football League, and the Packers simply aren't as talented as they were a couple of years ago. Due to free agent departures, injuries, and age, this season's offense is weaker at a majority of positions and stronger at none.
The following is a position-by-position comparison between the explosive 2020 offense and the sputtering 2022 edition:
QUARTERBACK
2020 - Aaron Rodgers
2022 - Aaron Rodgers
Analysis: The same person, but not the same player. QBs tend to age in dog years once they reach their late 30s, and while Rodgers, who turns 39 in December, is still very good, he's not as special as he was in 2020. He isn't as mobile or as accurate down the field. To be fair, a general manager is supposed to surround an aging QB with better skill players, and as we'll get to soon enough, Brian Gutekunst has done the exact opposite.
EDGE: 2020 (slight)
RUNNING BACK
2020 - Aaron Jones
2022 - Aaron Jones
Analysis: The same person and still the same player. RBs tend to slow down after five seasons, but Jones is still going strong a half dozen years after being drafted in the fifth round. In fact, he might be slightly better now than he was in 2020. His average yards per carry is up from 5.5 to 5.8, and he's a more consistent blocker. In fact, the only things that have been able to slow Jones down this season are Rodgers and coach Matt LaFleur.
EDGE: Even
TIGHT END
2020 - Robert Tonyan
2022 - Robert Tonyan
Analysis: The same person, but not the same player. Tonyan is less than a year removed from ACL surgery, and he's not moving quite as well as he did prior to the injury. He's also scored only one TD after catching 11 in 2020. The good news is that Tonyan seems to be getting a little better each week. Last Sunday, he caught a franchise-record 10 passes for 90 yards. There's a chance he'll be his old self soon, but he's not there yet.
EDGE: 2020 (slight)
WIDE RECEIVER 1
2020 - Davante Adams
2022 - Allen Lazard
Analysis: No disrespect to the player or the car, but this is like trading in a Porsche for a Ford. Adams was the best player at his position in 2020. Defenses double-teamed him on every snap, which opened up space in the middle of the field for others. Lazard is dependable and hard-nosed, but he wouldn't start for most good teams, let alone be the No. 1 option in the passing game.
EDGE: 2020 (huge)
WIDE RECEIVER 2
2020 - Marquez Valdes-Scantling
2022 - Romeo Doubs
Analysis: Doubs has already caught almost as many balls in six games (26) as Valdes-Scantling caught in 16 in 2020 (33), but MVS' value that season can't be measured in stats. His 4.3 speed forced defenses to respect the long pass, which kept the safeties deep and made it easier to run the ball. MVS averaged 21 yards per catch. While Doubs has a bright future, his impact is less significant.
EDGE: 2020 (slight)
WIDE RECEIVER 3
2020 - Allen Lazard
2022 - Randall Cobb
Analysis: Nothing epitomizes the decrease in talent more than this position. Lazard was the No. 3 receiver in 2020, which is where he fits best. In 2022, he's at the top of the depth chart. At 32, Cobb was playing better than expected before suffering an injury that could sideline him for a month. Sammy Watkins figures to take his place. Whether that's an upgrade remains to be seen.
EDGE: Even
LEFT TACKLE
2020 - David Bakhtiari
2022 - David Bakhtiari
Analysis: The same person, but not the same player. Bakhtiari was the best left tackle in the NFL in 2020 and seemed destined for the Hall of Fame. In 2020, Bakhtiari is a solid left tackle still fighting his way back from three knee surgeries. After watching the 31-year-old's strong effort against the Jets, there's certainly reason to believe he could reach his previous level in the coming weeks, but he's not close to being there yet.
EDGE: 2020 (huge)
LEFT GUARD
2020 - Elgton Jenkins
2022 - Jon Runyan
Analysis: Aside from last Sunday's forgettable performance against the Jets, Runyan has done a solid job at this position. The former Michigan star is an overachiever who usually manages to hold his own against more talented players. Jenkins, on the other hand, was dominant in 2020. He didn't allow a sack, and his mix of strength and athleticism made him a huge asset in the run game.
EDGE: 2020 (huge)
CENTER
2020 - Corey Linsley
2022 - Josh Myers
Analysis: Linsley was the best center in the NFL in 2020. In fact, he was so good that the Chargers paid him $60 million to leave Green Bay. He was strong enough to move larger players at the point of attack and savvy enough to stonewall quicker rushers. Myers was drafted in the second round in 2021, and while he's been adequate, the chasm between the two pivotmen is significant.
EDGE: 2020 (huge)
RIGHT GUARD
2020 - Lucas Patrick
2022 - Royce Newman
Analysis: Patrick might've been the weak link of the 2020 line, but he was a better player than Newman, who's been so bad that his starting job is in jeopardy. Patrick isn't as big or athletic as Newman, but he's stronger and more instinctive. Unlike Newman, he seldom got bull-rushed into the backfield, and he almost always knew when to offer help to the center and the right tackle.
EDGE: 2020 (slight)
RIGHT TACKLE
2020 - Billy Turner
2022 - Elgton Jenkins
Analysis: This position should be a massive advantage for the 2022 offense, but it hasn't been through six weeks. Newman was awful in the opener, and Jenkins has struggled the past five games after returning from ACL surgery. In fact, there's a chance he could move back to guard as soon as this week. While Turner was far from a star in 2020, he generally did a pretty good job.
EDGE 2020 (slight)
SUMMARY: Of the 11 positions on offense, the 2020 Packers were better at nine - in some cases, much better. The 2022 Packers aren't better at a single position, although that could change depending on how well a few players recover from injuries, whether changes are made on the right side of the line, and how quickly Doubs and Christian Watson develop. But as of today, there's simply no comparison between the two offenses. Add in three inexperienced assistant coaches in important new roles, and it's no surprise that production is down. The surprise is how far down. No offense with Rodgers throwing and Jones running should be scoring less than 18 points per game. If that doesn't change in a hurry, the three-time defending NFC North champions will likely miss the postseason for only the eighth time in the past 30 years.
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LaFleur’s game plans are far more conservative. Makes it much easier to defend. Games that Davante missed they would still score in the high 20’s, even 30’s if I remember. Kept defenses honest. Way too much spread and shotgun.
Clearly the talent is down but not getting the ball to Jones is a huge issue. Every snap Dillon takes for Jones is one less chance for Jones to break one. LaFleur has not put them in the best position to win. His game plans have been mediocre and unimaginative.
No question LaFleur’s schemes aren’t as creative, but I also think defenses are better prepared to face the Packers without Adams. Rather than having a few days to prepare, they’ve had months. Bring pressure and play man to man coverage seems to be the blueprint.
Very interesting post and something I’d not thought about how much each position had changed.
When LaFleur came here I was really excited about seeing a lot more motion and things to confuse the defense. If I remember correctly Rodgers doesn’t like that and wants a more static offense to he can “read” the defense.
Do you have any plans to do a similar article on the defense?
Honestly, I think the problems on defense are pretty clear – underperforming players and poor coaching.