According to a report from NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport, who’s as plugged into the Packers as any member of the media, the organization is willing to trade quarterback Aaron Rodgers if he wants out. That begs the question, why would he?
If Rodgers decides to make a list of pros and cons in regard to staying with the Packers for another season while on his four-day darkness retreat, it’s difficult to imagine the con list taking very long to write. In fact, it might be challenging for him to come up with a single reason to leave the franchise he’s been with since George W. Bush occupied the White House.
The following are three reasons why Rodgers – if the choice is truly his – could still be wearing green and yellow come September:
1) WINNING
Unless GM Brian Gutekunst is willing to trade Rodgers to the 49ers, which seems highly unlikely, it’s hard to see how his path to the Super Bowl would be clearer away from Green Bay. While an argument could be made that the Raiders or Jets with Rodgers would be marginally better than the Packers with Rodgers, any small advantage in talent would be negated by playing in the other conference. The Raiders have to deal with the Chiefs, Chargers, and Broncos with new head coach Sean Payton in their own division, while the Jets have to compete against the Bills, Dolphins, and Patriots. Just getting to the playoffs would be a challenge, and then the Bengals, Ravens, and upstart Jaguars would probably be waiting.
The competition in the NFC is not nearly as formidable. While the Vikings and Lions are pretty good, the North would be extremely winnable should Rodgers stay in Green Bay. With a third-place schedule and some fortuitous bounces of the ball, it’s not far-fetched to see the Packers going 10-7 next season, which would almost certainly be good enough to get into the playoffs, and aside from Philly and San Francisco, what other teams would present a daunting challenge in January?
The point is, while the odds of Rodgers getting to next year’s Super Bowl with the Packers aren’t good, they’re no worse than his odds of getting to the Super Bowl with another franchise, be it the Raiders, Jets, Titans, Colts, Commanders, etc.
2) POWER
How much control does Rodgers wield in Green Bay? Put it this way; it’s a mild surprise that the iconic G on the team’s helmet hasn’t been replaced by a photo of the 39-year-old’s face. Ever since his evisceration of Gutekunst at the start of training camp in 2021, Rodgers has pretty much gotten whatever he wanted. That includes trading for washed-up wide receiver Randall Cobb, re-signing ancient tight end Marcedes Lewis, hiring assistant coach Tom Clements, skipping all voluntary minicamps and OTAs, and agreeing to one of the most player-friendly contract extensions in the history of the NFL.
And that’s just off the field. Rodgers exerts nearly as much control on Sunday afternoons in the fall and winter. Despite head coach Matt LaFleur being hired due in large part to his supposed innovativeness as a designer and caller of plays, the Packers offense has looked more McCarthyian than Shanahanian or McVayian the past few seasons. That’s because the person being paid over $50 million per year prefers being in shotgun formation and doesn’t like having receivers in motion.
Would Rodgers have power elsewhere? Of course. His talent and resume’ guarantee that he’d be more than just another player. That said, no GM besides Gutekunst is going to cede to his every demand, and no head coach besides LaFleur is going to be quite so subservient. For example, you can be certain that Joe Douglas of the Jets won’t be trading for Cobb and/or signing Lewis, and you can be equally as sure that Josh McDaniel of the Raiders, who wasn’t afraid to get in Tom Brady’s face during their 13 years together in New England, won’t be scrapping his offensive philosophy just to placate Rodgers.
3) PRESSURE
I covered Buddy Ryan’s Eagles several decades ago and vividly recall members of the media literally fighting to ask a question at press conferences. In Green Bay, sycophantic bloggers are allowed to throw softball questions at players, coaches, and front-office executives. Even when Rodgers faces a rare difficult question, there’s almost never a follow-up. And since the legendary Bob McGinn retired from the Jornal Sentinel a few years ago, critical articles are few and far between.
If Rodgers gets traded to the Jets and then comes up small in the playoffs, the New York press would rip him to shreds. And not just for a few days but for multiple months. The words choke and disappointment – in 60-point font – would be plastered across every newspaper in the city and be uttered from the mouths of the seemingly 10,000 people who host a sports talk show. That would be jarring for an athlete who’s been treated with kid gloves for the past decade and a half.
For all the stupid things he’s said in recent years, Rodgers is smart enough to know how good he has it in little Green Bay, Wisconsin. While growing tired of his schtick, most fans still revere him, and he’s forged good relationships with the small number of reporters who cover the team on a daily basis. Does he really want to deal with a bigger and far less cordial media at this point in his career, especially if the odds of winning a title aren’t going to be substantially better?
IN CONCLUSION: I’ve thought for weeks that the odds of Rodgers returning were 50-50, but if Rapoport’s report is accurate, it might be a good idea to hold off buying a Jordan Love jersey. If the choice is truly his own, it’s difficult to imagine the man who’s been a Packer for the past 18 years not sticking around for at least one more season. Rodgers has it good in Green Bay, and if nobody is going to nudge him out the door, why would he voluntarily open it and walk away?
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I agree, but I’d change the first reason.
I’ve heard Rodgers repeatedly talk about winning the MVP award. Seldom does he talk about winning the Super Bowl. So, I ask what situation is best for Rodgers to win another MVP? I’d put skilled players in skill positions and a good offensive line on the top of the list. Defense helps win Super Bowls, but not MVPs. Skilled WRs and TEs may favor the Jets or Raiders, but the offensive line of the Jets may make him think about another team. Rodgers may find GB’s offensive line and the young WR’s aren’t so bad in comparison. That is, if he can extract a promise from Gutekunst to help select WRs in the draft.
Clearly Rodgers wants to run his offense. As mentioned, motion plays take away from his desire to run the play clock down. As don’t call too many crossing patterns. Vertical chunk plays all game long. I don’t see him doing that in Las Vegas.
Who cares about the press. He has his Wednesday show.
I couldn’t come up with any sound reason for Rodgers wanting to move away from the Packers but I could come up with several reasons why the organization would want to go in another direction. Since I don’t buy into the retirement narrative this offseason ( he still likes to compete, thinks he can play at a high level, and not many huge 50 Million dollar pay days left in his career) I’m thinking a discussion took place about the direction of the team and how he fits in or doesn’t. Rodgers has stated he thinks the team is a few players away and maybe Gutekunst has approached him with an option to reduce his salary to bring in a some new players for them to have a real shot at a title or he could move him to another team so the Packers can start to fix the team cap and start a minor rebuild. I think the team wants to move forward without Rodgers but they are willing to give him the option of whatever he chooses. Gutey probably said he can’t put a championship caliber team on the field under the current cap so what do you want to do? You can stay and play with a potentially lesser team here, help us out with the salary cap or we can move you to another competitive team.
Michael, I agree w/ most of your article but if 12 wants to win another Super Bowl, I believe the Jets have the talent to do so. They have a win now roster full of promising young talent and have a better roster (excluding QB) than GB. Would an excellent draft change the equation – who can say but if I’m 12- I am going to NY! Even giving 13 away this year and picks next year they could tweak their roster and contend for the forseeble end of his career so I’d be singing I love NY.
As long as Rodgers was winning 13 games a season, Brian Gutekunst was compelled to bring Rodgers back telling him to take as long as he needed to make a decision. Going 8-9 last season and the development of Jordan Love changes the equation considerably. Management is openly talking trade, telling him we need a decision now. There are those in the organization that are ready to make a change at QB and the growing sentiment among fans is to give Jordan Love his shot. I agree Rodgers is smart, and if it were up to him he’d return. Remember, he had a golden opportunity to leave last year and stayed. But it’s no longer just his call. If I’m Brian Gutekunst, I tell Rodgers you’re welcome back, if that’s what you decide, but I’m cutting all your buddies and it’s open competition at QB. No more preferential treatment. He probably beats out Love but the first crappy game, the first two game losing streak, the first time he twists and ankle or bruises his ribs, you start Jordan Love. Essentially you put Aaron Rodgers on notice because another 8-9 season can’t be tolerated. I’m sure this has all been communicated to Rodgers. Coming back and things go south, there’s a real possibility he finishes career on the bench. Not unlike Joe Namath in Los Angeles all those years ago. Nobody wants that. A scenario far more likely than any SB run next year. The smart thing to do would be retire and collect your money. Rodgers could say to himself, the Packers didn’t want me, but look at all these other teams that did. But I’m walking away on my own terms. Regardless of where he plays next season, if it ends up like last season, his reputation gets tarnished. Is that a risk he’s willing to take? Perhaps we’ll finally know after his “dark retreat.”
the answer to the post title is: because there is a giant carrot in New York.
i understand your well-articulated points Michael. Rodgers would clearly take on risk to make a move.
that said, New York would offer Rodgers opportunities that Green Bay does not. if Rodgers is feeling like he has it in him, he could actually do well with a new car to drive and some new scenery.. that is a new team and new people around him. if Rodgers did go to NY, he would be in a position to become the biggest name in Jets’ history in over a generation. that could help him launch the new phase of his life.. whatever that new phase may be. also, success in NY would offer Rodgers immense legacy-building improvements. maybe that is what Rodgers is pondering as he isolates himself in his concentration zone.