Any mock drafters who still have Brian Branch or Michael Mayer going to the Packers at No. 15 either haven’t been paying attention to general manager Brian Gutekunst’s history in the first round or didn’t watch last weekend’s NFL Combine.
Gutekunst has chosen six non-QBs in round 1 since being hired to replace Ted Thompson in January 2018, and each one posted off-the-chart measurables at the annual March meat market. Cornerback Jaire Alexander, edge rusher Rashan Gary, free safety Darnell Savage, cornerback Eric Stokes, inside linebacker Quay Walker, and defensive end Devonte Wyatt ran much faster and/or jumped considerably higher than the majority of players at their respective positions.
Branch and Mayer were hardly workout warriors. The Alabama defensive back finished with the second-slowest 40 (4.58) among cornerbacks and was 13th among safeties; his 10-yard split (1.56) was 24th and tied for eighth, and his vertical (34.5″) was 24th and 12th. As for the Notre Dame tight end, he finished with the third-slowest 40 (4.73), the third-worst vertical (32.5″), and the worst 10-yard split (1.66). To be fair, neither player was expected to light up the Combine. Still, it’s safe to assume teams were disappointed, especially with Mayer, who looked stiff in some of the drills.
Both players will have a chance to do better at their pro days, but as far as being selected by the Packers in the middle of the first round, that ship has probably sailed. Branch’s versatility was one of the things that made him so appealing going into last weekend. He was projected as a prospect who could line up and excel at any position in the secondary. That might not be the case any longer. There aren’t many elite corners with 4.58 speed in the NFL. And while 15 always seemed a little high for Mayer, it’s no longer certain that his name will be called on Day 1. A trio of less productive but much more athletic tight ends (Dalton Kincaid, Luke Musgrave, and Darnell Washington) had already been closing on him.
None of this is to suggest that Branch and Mayer won’t be extremely productive at the next level. Branch might not run in the low 4.3s like Savage, but he was a much better player in college and will be a much better player in the National Football League. And while Mayer probably won’t be the next George Kittle, Travis Kelce, or Ozzie Newsome, I see an intriguing combination of Mark Andrews, a young Marcedes Lewis, and Mark Bavaro (Google him, kids) when I watch his tape.
Is it possible that Gutekunst will change his philosophy and actually spend a first-round pick on a player who didn’t leave Mel Kiper speechless last weekend? You never know, but if I were a betting man, I’d stop thinking about Branch and Mayer as possibilities for round 1 and start focusing on players who ran like Usain Bolt and jumped like Michael Jordan.
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I wouldn’t be mad if we traded back to get Branch, but a slow, stiff, plodding TE like Mayer? Not in round 1. They’d be better off with a free agent.
good post.