GM, Coach About To Lose Security Blanket

The next several months will be bliss for Brian Gutekunst and Matt LaFleur. Spring in Green Bay, Wisconsin, will feel like summer in Paris, France. The sixth-year general manager won’t have to fret about which of soon-to-be ex-Packer Aaron Rodgers’ friends to keep on the roster, and the fifth-year coach won’t have to trash plays the star QB doesn’t like.

Gutekunst and LaFleur won’t be the only ones happy to have Jordan Love leading the offense. While veterans like All-Pro left tackle David Bakhtiari and Pro Bowl running back Aaron Jones will undoubtedly miss Rodgers; it’s a safe bet that young receivers Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, and Samori Toure will be thrilled to be catching passes from a quarterback around their age who won’t roll his eyes or shake his head whenever they run the wrong route or drop a pass.

Green Bay will be Heaven on Earth through the spring and summer. After that, there’s a chance it could feel more like Hell.

For one of the few times in the past 30 years, a Packers general manager and head coach will go into a season without a great player at the game’s most important position. With Rodgers 1,000 miles away in northern New Jersey, Gutekunst and LaFleur will have to win games with the unproven Love at QB. That’ll be quite a challenge. It’ll also let everybody know once and for all whether the two most influential people in the organization are actually good at their respective jobs.

Gutekunst has presided over three 13-win seasons since replacing Ted Thompson in 2018. He’s also drafted a trio of terrific players (Jaire Alexander, Rashan Gary, and Elgton Jenkins), signed a handful of quality free agents (De’Vondre Campbell, Adrian Amos, Za’Darius Smith, and Preston Smith), and poached a few competent starters off other team’s practice squads (Allen Lazard and Rasul Douglas). But Gutekunst has also missed on quite a few premium picks (Josh Jackson, Darnell Savage, Oren Burks, Jace Sternberger, Amari Rodgers, and Josiah Deguara) and failed to close deals to acquire potential difference-makers at the trade deadline – players who could’ve changed results in the 2020 and 2021 postseasons.

LaFleur set a record by winning 39 games in his first three years on the job, and even after the disappointment of last season, he still boasts a winning percentage of .712. That’s tied for fourth-best in NFL history. He also deserves credit for Rodgers capturing back-to-back MVPs in 2020 and 2021 after struggling (for him) in 2018 and 2019. But LaFleur is only 2-4 in elimination games, with three losses coming at Lambeau Field. He’s also missed badly on some key hires. So far, his only coordinator to last more than two seasons is Joe Barry – much to the chagrin of pretty much every Packers fan.

The point is, GMs and coaches can make many mistakes with a generational talent at QB. Rodgers’ ability to get the offense out of bad plays should never be taken for granted, nor should his quick release. There’s a reason the Packers scored 26+ points per game with Marshall Newhouse at left tackle in 2012 and Don Barclay at right tackle in 2013. Thus, it’s fair to wonder whether an offensive line that could again start, from center to right tackle, Josh Myers, Jon Runyan Jr., and Yosh Nijman will perform nearly as competently with the inexperienced Love at QB as it did with Rodgers last season.

If the Packers are reasonably competitive without Rodgers next season and return to the playoffs in 2024, Gutekunst and LaFleur will have eliminated any doubt about their abilities, and both will likely be around through at least the end of the decade. But if the Packers stink without Rodgers next season and miss the playoffs for a third straight January in 2024, Gutekunst will probably be a director of college scouting and LaFleur an offensive coordinator 24 months from today.