Perry By The Sack
Nick Perry is going to be a fascinating player to watch in the next few weeks. How much should Green Bay or any team pay a 3-4 outside linebacker who’s averaged only 6 sacks per season, but had 11 in 2016? The answer would be around $10M per if you believe last season was a glimpse into the future and not a fluke.
To make up my own mind, I went back and re-watched all 10 of Perry’s regular season sacks (I didn’t count the two 1/2 sacks) in order to determine if it’s reasonable to expect similar production in the future. Here’s what I saw:
SACK #1: (Packers lead Jacksonville 27-20 with 6 minutes left in the 4th quarter). Rushing from an inside linebacker position, disengaged from a pair of blockers to trip up a scrambling Blake Bortles before he got back to the line of scrimmage. It was a nice play, and while it counted as a sack, it was more like a tackle for loss.
SACK #2 (Packers lead Detroit 34-17 with 12 minutes left in the 4th quarter). Cleanly beat rookie left tackle Taylor Decker around the end for a sack. Legit.
SACK #3 (Packers lead Detroit 34-20 with 7 minutes left in the 4th quarter). Credited with a sack, but more of a hustle play. Chased down a scrambling Matthew Stafford before he crossed the line of scrimmage.
SACK #4 (Packers lead Giants 17-6 with 7 minutes left in the 3rd quarter). Used speed to blow by left tackle Ereck Flowers to sack Eli Manning. Legit.
SACK #5 (Packers lead Chicago 13-10 with 6 minutes left in the 3rd quarter). Came off left side completely unblocked. Showed good instincts by holding ground and not overreacting to misdirection. Nice play, but kind of a gimme sack.
SACK #6 (Packers and Washington tied 0-0 with 13 minutes left in the 1st quarter.) Bull rushed massive right tackle Morgan Moses and enveloped Kirk Cousins. Legit sack.
SACK #7 (Packers lead Eagles 27-13 under 2 minutes left in the 4th quarter.) Beat Pro Bowl left tackle Jason Peters with power. Legit sack in garbage time
SACK #8 (Packers lead Vikings 38-19 with 3 minutes left in the 4th quarter). Playing with club on broken hand, beat backup right tackle Jeremiah Sirles with power. Legit sack in garbage time.
SACK #9 (Packers lead Vikings 38-25 with under 1 minute left in the 4th quarter). Beat left tackle T.J. Clemmings around end with speed. Legit sack in garbage time.
SACK #10 (Packers lead Lions 17-14 with 7 minutes left in the 3rd quarter. Went right around right tackle Corey Robinson, who was slow out of his stance. Legit sack.
My conclusion? If the over/under on Perry’s sack totals in future seasons is 8, I’d take the under and feel pretty comfortable doing so. Of his 10 full sacks last season, 3 came in garbage time and another 3 were more the result of hustle and/or awareness. That means only 4 of his sacks came in a competitive game with the quarterback still looking to throw from the pocket.
To be fair, all pass rushers get “gimme” sacks. That said, most 3-4 outside linebackers set to make big money usually have more of a track record. It’s important to remember that Perry had only 12.5 sacks in 46 games prior to 2016, and even counting last season, his career average is still just a shade over 6.
So what’s the former USC star worth? All things considered (age, performance, durability), probably around $8M per. That would seem fair compensation for a soon-to-be 27-year-old outside linebacker who’s very good against the run and who’ll probably finish most seasons with a sack total closer to 6 than 11.
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