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June 22, 2017

The Green Bay Packers Select…

Trying to predict what general manager Ted Thompson might do with the 29th pick in the first round will be a lot easier after pick No. 28 is announced later tonight than it is right now. But that’s not going to stop me from giving it a shot.

OK, I’ll start by removing the players who will likely be off the board. They are: quarterbacks Patrick Mahomes, Mitchell Trubisky and DeShawn Watson, running backs Dalvin Cook, Leonard Fournette and Christian McCaffrey, offensive linemen Garrett Boles, Forrest Lamp and Ryan Ramsyzk, wide receivers Corey Davis, John Ross and Mike Williams, tight ends O.J. Howard and David Njoku, defensive linemen Jonathan Allen, Derek Barnett, Myles Garrett and Solomon Thomas, linebackers Jarrad Davis, Reuben Foster, Charles Harris, Takkarist McKinley and Haason Reddick, cornerbacks Marlon Humphrey, Kevin King, Mashon Lattimore and safeties Jamal Adams and Malik Hooker.

That leaves the following players as realistic possibilities for the Packers at No. 29: linebackers Taco Charlton, Zach Cunningham, T.J. Watt and Jordan Willis, cornerbacks Chidobe Awuzie, Gareon Conley, Tre’Davious White and Quincy Wilson and safety Jabrill Peppers.

Thompson has never selected a player in the first round who didn’t play for a school from the ACC, Big 10, Pac 12 or SEC, so let’s eliminate Willis (Kansas State). As for the talented Conley, if he’s still around it’s only because teams are scared to death of his alleged sexual assault. Let’s also say goodbye to Cunningham since Thompson hasn’t drafted an inside linebacker prior to round 4 in over a decade. And while Wilson’s size is appealing, does Thompson really want to add another corner with suspect speed to an already painfully slow secondary? I doubt it.

And then there were five – Awuzie, Charlton, Peppers, Watt and White. Thompson called jack-of-all-trades defensive back Micah Hyde one of his all-time favorites, and both Awuzie and Peppers are much more talented versions of the former Packer and current Bill. Charlton is another versatile player, who just happens to be my favorite of the quintet. But at the end of the day, I think the pick is either going to be a pure corner or a pure outside linebacker.

So now we’re down to Watt and White. While Thompson has drafted only one Badger in 12 years on the job, Watt seems like his perfect linebacker. He’s ascending, tough and gives 100% on every play. If it weren’t for a pair of knee surgeries, he’d be Ted’s wet dream. White doesn’t have great size or speed, but his tape is outstanding. The fact that  he can line up either outside or in the slot and return punts is also a major plus.

So who’s the pick? It’s a very tough choice, but I’m going with White. Maybe that’s only because I like him a lot more than Watt, but I also happen to think corner is the bigger need. Plus, there should be a number of intriguing edge rushers available on day 2. Of course, if any of the game-changing offensive players (Cook or Ross) unexpectedly fall to 29, forget everything you just spent the past few minutes reading. Oh, the fun of doing a mock draft.


13 Responses “The Green Bay Packers Select…”

  1. Jeff
    April 27, 2017 at 12:45 pm

    That’s who I’m hoping for. Would be a huge upgrade over what we have.

  2. Thorny
    April 27, 2017 at 12:46 pm

    Oh boy, I’d be ecstatic​ to get Ross, Davis or Williams at 29. I’m so used to being disappointed but I’ll hope against hope a Foster falls and is selected or a stud WR or RB. Watt would be so Text and so would Kevin King or White.

    I wouldn’t rule out Willis due to K State. He did take Jordy with his first pick that he traded down into the 2nd with.

    Star power…PLEASE. Not another Bulaga when Dez is there scenario but I can feel it coming in the air tonight, oh Lord.

  3. speakeasy
    April 27, 2017 at 12:48 pm

    I’m hoping we trade back to get an extra pick or two, maybe get Awuzie early in the second round and then package a few picks to get Watt in the early second round too. Have Mixon drop into the third or fourth (very unlikely to drop into the fourth) and that would be a great draft on paper IMO.

    Of course, maybe Watt goes 21st to Detroit. Who the heck knows.

    I saw McGinn predicted King, but I don’t think he falls down to us. He has all the intangibles and love his height. However, the tape doesn’t seem to match his underwear Olympic numbers.

  4. April 27, 2017 at 1:49 pm

    I like White and think he would be a great pick. However, I am hoping that Ted trades out of the first round. Given the ton of different needs, it just makes sense to pick up as many swings as possible. Given Ted’s performance in the draft the last few years this cannot hurt his chances at success.

    Of course, we’ll be told fans do not know anything and that we just need to trust in Ted and allow him to meander his way through the draft and football life without any interference from us crazy fans/owners.

    I can accept some of that, but it is getting tiresome to hear McCarthy, Ted and to some degree, Mark Murphy talk down to us like we’re simpletons. I have bad news for all three of them. I hold a Masters in Public Health, played football for ten years of my life. While the degree and football experience do not make me a football GM/player/coach, it does mean that I know a little something and I do not need anyone pissing down my back and then try and convince me that it’s raining. The smug attitude needs to be checked at the door and all parties have to understand they’re on the clock and time is running out on their particular brand of crazy.

    Anyway, I digress- my point is that there are good lines of thought outside the walls of Lambeau and that the smugness and belittlement of reporters and fans need to end. McCarty and his ass is the main one that I grow weary of. If I were a reporter he and I would have words if he spoke to me in the same fashion as he often does to Jason, Tom, Michael and/or some of the other reporters. I just am not sure I could tolerate his cocky self-indulgent approach to press conferences.

    At any rate, I am offering two different mock drafts here- first is one where the Packers trade out of the first round and the second is just going pick by pick without any trades.

    The drafts come from First-pick.com. They set the premature’s and I am bound to follow their rules and available players. To keep it honest and as real life as possible, I allow the site to make all the picks except for the Packers. The site also purposed the trade and compensation. so again, it is as real life as possible.

    Here are the results:

    Traded pick #29 to San Francisco for their 2nd and 3rd round picks. Those are picks 34 and 66.

    Round 2 Pick 2 (S.F.): Zach Cunningham, OLB/ILB, Vanderbilt
    Round 2 Pick 29: Ahkello Witherspoon, CB, Colorado
    Round 3 Pick 2 (S.F.): Carlos Henderson, WR, Louisiana Tech
    Round 3 Pick 29: Tyler Orlosky, C, West Virginia
    Round 4 Pick 27: Dede Westbrook, WR, Oklahoma
    Round 5 Pick 28: James Conner, RB, Pittsburgh
    Round 5 Pick 38 (COMP): Brian Allen, CB, Utah
    Round 6 Pick 28: Charles Walker, DT, Oklahoma
    Round 7 Pick 29: Eric Wilson, OLB, Cincinnati

    The following is just a straight draft- no trades and no changes to the current selections

    Round 1 Pick 29: Zach Cunningham, OLB/ILB, Vanderbilt
    Round 2 Pick 29: Adoree’ Jackson, CB, Southern California
    Round 3 Pick 29: Anthony Walker Jr., ILB, Northwestern
    Round 4 Pick 27: Carlos Watkins, DT, Clemson
    Round 5 Pick 28: Brian Hill, RB, Wyoming
    Round 5 Pick 38 (COMP): Isaiah McKenzie, WR, Georgia
    Round 6 Pick 28: Channing Stribling, CB, Michigan
    Round 7 Pick 29: Avery Moss, DE, Youngstown State

    Hopefully, by the end of the weekend. The Packers will have acquired some players that can truly help the team this year and for years to come. Hopefully, it is a win performance and not just on paper but rather in the win and loss column aided by the players acquired during this coming weekend.

    Thanks… GO PACK Go!

  5. GT3
    April 27, 2017 at 3:04 pm

    Hey, been reading since the packerupdate days, love and trust your judgement. Any chance we get a Jhari Evans profile soon? I’m curious as to the impact of the move.

  6. April 27, 2017 at 3:06 pm

    The normal trade value to move from 34th up to 29th would be a 4th round pick. The 49ers would have to REALLY want whoever is sitting there to give up that much. IF Thompson could do that I’d feel a whole lot better about the Packers being able to fill at least 2 holes on defense.

  7. Woody Miller
    April 27, 2017 at 3:12 pm

    How about USC Addoris Jackson? He also returns kicks!

  8. CJS
    April 27, 2017 at 3:37 pm

    Great breakdown Michael.

    I wouldn’t mind speakeasy’s scenario where GB trades back either. If there was a way to trade back and get Mixon AND a CB with some speed in R2, I’d be ecstatic.

  9. Michael Rodney
    April 27, 2017 at 3:59 pm

    GT3 – I’m hoping to have a scouting report on Evans posted by the end of next week.

  10. GT3
    April 27, 2017 at 4:11 pm

    Awesome. Thanks. Quick question since the Draft is bearing down upon us, does signing Evans ease the level of need at guard enough that we can tee off on D without investing an early o-line pick?? Thanks again, Michael, wish you got more recognition for this site. Been a go to for years. Definitely miss the Shh.. Here’s What We’re Hearing sections.

  11. Thorny
    April 27, 2017 at 4:45 pm

    You can only trade down if someone wants to jump up. I’m going to guess nobody wants to do that. Better for a team to do that with Atlanta or New Orleans than us, so I think trade down is extremely unlikely. I’d prefer that as much as most of us and the Packers org probably would.

    Still hoping for Richard Sherman as the best case scenario with our 1st. Prefer an offensive difference maker vs. some solid defender. Believe more offensive star power will be available at 29 than defensive. Awuzie keeps going through my head for some reason. Hope it’s not him or another below top tier corner.

    All this build up…Watch…A trade right out of Round 1 actually happens. Life of a Packers fan.

    Here’s a weird scenario. New Orleans trades up with us to get ahead of Atlanta. We then use last pick in Round 1 to trade down, again. We get multiple extra picks and still likely get someone we really want at beginning of Round 2.

  12. TJV
    April 27, 2017 at 4:57 pm

    Like some others I’d like to see a trade-down.

    I know GT3 wants to hear Michael’s answer but I think Evans’ signing definitely takes the pressure off to draft an OG early. And I’m not sure how early they would have selected an OG without the signing. Sitton, Lang, and Tretter were 4th rounders. Linsley was a 5th rounder and started all 18 games as a rookie. Bakhtiari was a 4th rounder who started every game as a rookie at a tougher position.

    I agree with Nick Perry about the value of trading down out of #29. I’ve some Packers with unrealistic expectations, to say the least. I think Dale has SF being too generous for the Packers trading down 5 spots, but wouldn’t it be great for the Packers to be on the other end of a trade-down to a team panicking to trade up?

  13. April 27, 2017 at 8:03 pm

    I am sorry that I did not say this earlier, just got sidetracked but wanted to thank you for outstanding work. I have followed your work since Packer update and have always loved your work.

    I hope you continue to receive recognition and I also hope that you are able to continue your outstanding work, and you have a fan for the rest of my days- if you wish to continue doing your work.

    Let’s all hope that tonight the Packers either acquire an outstanding talent… but I would still love for them to trade back into the early second round and obtain extra picks.

    By the way… the website is the one who purposed the compensation from SF all that I did was accept it within the website.

    Anyway, GO PACK GO!

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