Nick Perry is going to be a fascinating player to watch in the next few weeks. How much should Green Bay or any team pay a 3-4 outside linebacker who’s averaged only 6 sacks per season, but had 11 in 2016? The answer would be around $10M per if you believe last season was a glimpse into the future and not a fluke.
To make up my own mind, I went back and re-watched all 10 of Perry’s regular season sacks (I didn’t count the two 1/2 sacks) in order to determine if it’s reasonable to expect similar production in the future. Here’s what I saw:
SACK #1: (Packers lead Jacksonville 27-20 with 6 minutes left in the 4th quarter). Rushing from an inside linebacker position, disengaged from a pair of blockers to trip up a scrambling Blake Bortles before he got back to the line of scrimmage. It was a nice play, and while it counted as a sack, it was more like a tackle for loss.
SACK #2 (Packers lead Detroit 34-17 with 12 minutes left in the 4th quarter). Cleanly beat rookie left tackle Taylor Decker around the end for a sack. Legit.
SACK #3 (Packers lead Detroit 34-20 with 7 minutes left in the 4th quarter). Credited with a sack, but more of a hustle play. Chased down a scrambling Matthew Stafford before he crossed the line of scrimmage.
SACK #4 (Packers lead Giants 17-6 with 7 minutes left in the 3rd quarter). Used speed to blow by left tackle Ereck Flowers to sack Eli Manning. Legit.
SACK #5 (Packers lead Chicago 13-10 with 6 minutes left in the 3rd quarter). Came off left side completely unblocked. Showed good instincts by holding ground and not overreacting to misdirection. Nice play, but kind of a gimme sack.
SACK #6 (Packers and Washington tied 0-0 with 13 minutes left in the 1st quarter.) Bull rushed massive right tackle Morgan Moses and enveloped Kirk Cousins. Legit sack.
SACK #7 (Packers lead Eagles 27-13 under 2 minutes left in the 4th quarter.) Beat Pro Bowl left tackle Jason Peters with power. Legit sack in garbage time
SACK #8 (Packers lead Vikings 38-19 with 3 minutes left in the 4th quarter). Playing with club on broken hand, beat backup right tackle Jeremiah Sirles with power. Legit sack in garbage time.
SACK #9 (Packers lead Vikings 38-25 with under 1 minute left in the 4th quarter). Beat left tackle T.J. Clemmings around end with speed. Legit sack in garbage time.
SACK #10 (Packers lead Lions 17-14 with 7 minutes left in the 3rd quarter. Went right around right tackle Corey Robinson, who was slow out of his stance. Legit sack.
My conclusion? If the over/under on Perry’s sack totals in future seasons is 8, I’d take the under and feel pretty comfortable doing so. Of his 10 full sacks last season, 3 came in garbage time and another 3 were more the result of hustle and/or awareness. That means only 4 of his sacks came in a competitive game with the quarterback still looking to throw from the pocket.
To be fair, all pass rushers get “gimme” sacks. That said, most 3-4 outside linebackers set to make big money usually have more of a track record. It’s important to remember that Perry had only 12.5 sacks in 46 games prior to 2016, and even counting last season, his career average is still just a shade over 6.
So what’s the former USC star worth? All things considered (age, performance, durability), probably around $8M per. That would seem fair compensation for a soon-to-be 27-year-old outside linebacker who’s very good against the run and who’ll probably finish most seasons with a sack total closer to 6 than 11.
This was great work. Thank you
Glad you enjoyed it. This post took A LOT of time.
Love him at 8.5 – but I tend to think he’s going to get more if he makes it to the open market. It only takes one…
Word is, he wants to get paid.
I also believe he wants to play DE in a 4-3 scheme. And let’s face it, this organization doesn’t have a history of protecting their players from injury. If he comes back, it’s likely to cost extra.
That is good information Michael, thanks for putting that together. Perry seems to finally come around so I hope they can keep him at a reasonable price. And I hate to sound like a broken record but again, how does Perry compare to all available FAs and trade candidates available? Thompson’s quote, “I’d rather work with the guys that we have and try to make them better than trading one of them to some other team to get somebody else’s guy, if you know what I mean.” and his history of course strongly indicate others won’t be considered. (Thompson’s quote is in Thorny’s post in the Thompson/Tough decisions blog) Regarding that quote, hoping or thinking a player on the roster can be ‘made better’ is a bad formula for addressing immediate needs.
BTW Nerd, the vast majority of players rightly want to get paid. It’s the very rare exception a home town discount is given.
This is highly relevant work. Looking beneath the surface is really important. Glad you were able to find the time. I would like to know about his pressures as well. Wondering how many of those were legit as pressures that mess up a pass attempt are an important asset, too. That’s an even better gauge of his overall impact vs. the pass and with our back end its importance can’t be understated.
Ted letting an ascending first rounder leave? Is there any precedent? I can’t think of one. Hayward was a fallen off 2nd rounder. Cobb was an ascending 2nd rounder and cleaned up. With Ted, precedent is to be relied upon so I can’t imagine Nick doesn’t make bank with us. Personally, it wouldn’t bother me to see him go. He played his best in a contract year. He’s another of those guys I don’t know that you trust after he gets his money. Doesn’t seem to be a sold out football guy.
thank you.. love this kind of analysis. i wonder if, for the money, Ted might be better off letting Perry go, picking up a 3rd round comp pick for him, resigning Peppers on an incentive laden contract and drafting a pass rusher with pick #29.
Ive heard there’s considerable depth at CB, OLB/pass rusher and RB in this draft.
Could get some guys.
Love this analysis. So much is weight is put on that sack number – it’s great to go a click down and get the context.
Ok nerd, thats why they rushed Shields and Lacy back..oh wait..
Have you considered his performance to play time rationale. Have you looked at all of the pressures and against the run plays? You can’t grade a player based off one thing (sacs in one season) you must factor in everything. Maybe his stats weren’t as high because his playing time was considerably lower!?!
Here is what McGinn wrote about Perry in his grades column. He gave him the highest grade of defensive players, a B+:
“Without question, this was his finest season. If one can differentiate Perry’s play before his left hand was broken in Game 12 from after, it’s safe to say he was the team’s most valuable player on defense. Against the run, he was second among OLBs in tackles per snap (one every 10.5) and third on the team in tackles for loss (career-high 5 ½). He also led the team both in sacks (12) and pressures (36, almost twice his career high of 18 ½ as a rookie). He missed 2 ½ games following hand surgery, then played the last five games with a massive club impairing his grip. Perry brings plenty of muscle to the Packers. Does Perry, however, strike fear into opposing quarterbacks and coordinators? He’s unrestricted in March; the Packers or somebody else will determine his value.”
http://www.jsonline.com/story/sports/nfl/packers/2017/01/30/mcginn-2016-packers-defensive-player-grades/97137954/
He doesn’t strike fear in opposing QBs and OCs – hell, who on the Packers does? If he can build on his success and stay healthy he’d certainly be worth keeping. But staying healthy particularly is the rub for him, isn’t it? Honest question: What’s the longest stretch he’s gone being healthy?
It’s a great question, TJV. I believe MR tweeted that the narrative that Perry is oft injured is patently false. However, while Perry might have been often available, it does always seem he’s playing at far less than 100% routinely. A guy in a contract year will play through injury. Will a guy who just got the moon do it, too?
Perry reminds me of a hot chick with all kinds of baggage. Sure, you might want to be with her, but can you ever really trust her?