There are three reasons why nobody should be surprised that rookie offensive lineman Sean Rhyan is having a very disappointing training camp. The first is that he’s one of the youngest players in the NFL at 21. The second is that he’s transitioning from left tackle to right guard, a position he had never played before joining the Packers in April. And the third is that few teams in the league have missed on more picks in round 3 than Green Bay since the start of the 21st century.
In a league where just over 30% of all college prospects picked in the third round between 2000 and 2017 became starting-caliber players – defined as a player who started half his team’s games for a minimum of four seasons – the Packers sit at 15% (3 of 20). And that’s not counting Rhyan, Oren Burks, Jace Sternberger, Josiah Deguara, and Amari Rodgers. Based on the criteria of this particular study, it’s too soon to assess their careers, but early returns aren’t encouraging.
What makes the poor results in round 3 so astonishing is that they were accomplished by four GMs, ranging from the legendary (Ron Wolf) to the incompetent (Mike Sherman) to those somewhere in between (Ted Thompson and Brian Gutekunst).
The chart below lists all the players drafted in round 3 since 2000, their number of starts and seasons, and who picked them:
| PLAYER | STARTS/SEASONS | GM |
|---|---|---|
| DL Steve Warren | 0/2 | Wolf |
| LB Torrance Marshall | 2/4 | Sherman |
| DB Bhawoh Joe | 27/7 | Sherman |
| DB Marques Anderson | 28/4 | Sherman |
| DL Kenny Peterson | 15/7 | Sherman |
| P B.J. Sander | 14/1 | Sherman |
| DL Donnell Washington | 0/2 | Sherman |
| DB Joey Thomas | 1/3 | Sherman |
| OL Jason Spitz | 45/6 | Thompson |
| LB Abdul Hodge | 1/4 | Thompson |
| DB Aaron Rouse | 18/3 | Thompson |
| WR James Jones | 72/9 | Thompson |
| TE Jermichael Finley | 48/6 | Thompson |
| DB Morgan Burnett | 112/10 | Thompson |
| RB Alex Green | 4/3 | Thompson |
| TE Richard Rodgers | 28/8 | Thompson |
| DL Khyri Thornton | 6/3 | Thompson |
| WR Ty Montgomery | 20/7 | Thompson |
| LB Kyler Fackrell | 19/6 | Thompson |
| DL Montravius Adams | 8/5 | Thompson |
| LB Oren Burks | 7/4 | Gutekunst |
| TE Jace Sternberger | 1/2 | Gutekunst |
| TE Josiah Deguara | 3/2 | Gutekunst |
| WR Amari Rodgers | 1/1 | Gutekunst |
| OL Sean Rhyan | TBD | Gutekunst |
Wolf, the man who turned a woebegone franchise around in 1992 and entered the Pro Football Hall of Fame 23 years later, swung and missed on his final third-round pick. The undersized Warren proved to be a harbinger of things to come.
Sherman, who had no business succeeding Wolf as GM in 2001, was woefully bad in the third round. Not one of his seven picks proved to be even an average player. Looking back, his decision to trade up for a punter makes perfect sense.
Thompson hit with Jones, Finley, and Burnett during a stretch from 2007 to 2010, but the good picks didn’t last. Of his last six selections, only journeymen Richard Rodgers and Fackrell averaged more than three starts a season for their careers.
As for Gutekunst, while Burks and Sternberger can’t technically be written off just yet, they can in reality. Deguara and Amari Rodgers don’t look like future starters at this point in their young careers, but that can still change. The same for Rhyan.
It’s difficult to know why the Packers have fared so poorly compared to the rest of the league when it comes to round 3, but 20 years and four GMs suggest it’s more than plain old bad luck. And since many of the team’s top personnel execs have been around for most of the futility, it’s fair to wonder if things will change anytime soon. It’s also fair to wonder if Gutekunst should just trade away every third-round pick and let his entire staff go home early on night two of the draft.
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Wow, I didn’t realize just how bad it has been. It’s hard to imagine another team having this poor drafting in the 3rd for this long.
I knew it was bad, but not this bad. I can see trading the 3rd round pick to move up in the 2nd round just based on track record. I’d even agree with trading a 3rd round pick for a 2nd round pick in the next year.
Wolf’s 3rd round picks from ‘92-‘95 were a thing of beauty:
Brooks
Dotson
Freeman
Henderson
I forgot where I read it and who said it, but one GM said anybody can pick good players in the first two rounds and get lucky in the last two rounds. Rounds 3 to 5 are where the best GMs separate themselves.
Too early to say that Sean Rhyan is a bust. The article says he’s 21 and moving from LT to RG with no experience at that position. I think that he will do quite well as an interior player – remember, he was a 4 year starter at UCLA at LT – that doesn’t happen too often. Let’s see what happens in year 2. I still have confidence in him.
Agree 100%. Too young to be considered a bust. He is in his early learning process. Time will tell.
I never said Rhyan was a bust. In fact, I went out of my way to say it was too soon to pass judgement. I simply used his struggles in training camp as a way to transition into this story.
Yes, it’s astonishing how bad the Packers have been in the third round for years. It would be interesting to compare the 4th and 5th rounds, especially the former. Those tended to be rounds that TT thrived in; Gutey, if he’s not trading them, seems to be rounding a bit into form with those two rounds: Doubs and Tom both sound like future starters. Not exactly Bakhtiari, Lang, Sitton, etc. but very hopeful that his later rounds of late are looking to produce more.