After rethinking about Sunday’s game against the Dolphins, here are three things worth discussing:
1) The Packers deserve a lot of credit for beating the Dolphins. They prevailed without both starting tackles for most of the game and without their best receiver (Christian Watson) in the second half. So feel free to get excited about the possibility of making the playoffs, but keep in mind that it’s still going to be an uphill climb. Not only do the Packers need to beat the red-hot Vikings (12-3) and much-improved Lions (7-8) at Lambeau Field, but they need either the Giants (8-6-1) to lose twice or the Commanders (7-7-1) to lose once. The problem is that both teams will be favored at home on Sunday. Another potential problem is Week 18. There’s a good chance their respective opponents, Philly and Dallas, will have absolutely nothing to play for. If that’s the case, the Packers’ ticket to the postseason would be in the hands of dozens of backups. But hey, that’s something to worry about later. For now, just enjoy an unlikely win in Miami and the even more unlikely reality that the Packers – 4-8 and left for dead a month ago – will be playing a very meaningful game in January.
2) Rich Bisaccia has done a commendable job in his first season as special teams coordinator. Field goals and PATs are no longer an adventure, kick coverage has been rock solid, and the return game is finally a strength – albeit a belated one. But what the heck was he thinking with that fake punt in the second quarter? Look, I had zero problems with the idea. After all, it looked at the time as if Green Bay might need 40 or more points to win, so keeping the ball away from the Dolphins made perfect sense. What didn’t make perfect sense, however, was going through with the trickery after seeing how the Dolphins were aligned. They had three defenders – two of them over 335 pounds – within a few feet of the ball. It was foolish to think 195-pound safety Dallin Leavitt was going to be able to pick up the two yards needed for a first down. He didn’t come close. To be honest, I’m not sure Aaron Jones would’ve done much better with the ball in his hands. Bisaccia was bailed out when the defense held Miami to a field goal, and of course, nobody will remember this play since Green Bay won the game. But with the stakes even higher going forward, the decisions made have to be smarter.
3) The defense was awful in the first half. In fact, after 20 minutes, the Dolphins were on pace for about 60 points and 800 yards. But things changed dramatically after halftime. An offense with a quarterback enjoying a Pro Bowl-caliber season and two of the best receivers in the league didn’t score a single point on four drives. Sure, Tua Tagovailoa made some very poor throws that resulted in three interceptions, but give coordinator Joe Barry and his players credit. The front seven was tougher vs. the run and, more importantly, did a much better job of getting after the former Alabama star. Tagovailoa was often forced to roll out of the pocket, which limited where he could go with the ball. And when he made a mistake, Jaire Alexander, De’Vondre Campbell, and Rasul Douglas capitalized. Sunday was a day of redemption for the defense, but that unit won’t have much time to celebrate with the Vikings up next. They’re at least as talented on offense as the Dolphins and already hung 400 yards on Green Bay in Week 1. Barry will need a better strategy than the one he employed back in September. He should start by planning to cover star receiver Justin Jefferson this time around.
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The poll was 50-50 when I last checked, and that’s how I feel about the Packers’ chances of making the playoffs. The possibility of Dallas not caring in Week 18 concerns me, as does our own game against the Vikings on Sunday. They might not be a great team, and going 11-0 in one-score games might be fluky, but it’s still impressive. The Packers will have to play their best game of the season to win.
The odds of converting a fake punt on your own 20 by running up the gut are about the same as hitting a home run on 4th and 2 with a 35 yard launch. Both are incredibly low percentage plays, one of which we do constantly and the other I hope we never do again.
LaFleur has gotten into the habit of leaving points on the field in the 1st half. Absolutely crazy. Analytics be damned, there’s 50 different things over the course of a game that can make those 3 points absolutely crucial for a win.
If LaFleur kicks the FG in the first half instead of launching one 35 yards on 4th down we win the game 29-20 and the FG at the end of the game gives us a two score lead, game over, and we don’t need Rasul to jump a route.
Playing CB requires covering AND tackling. Unfortunately, Jaire will only do one of these.
Wyatt made more plays in this game than Lowry has all year.
If the Packers do make the playoffs I’d sure feel a whole lot better about their chances if Rashan Gary was healthy.
I saw a comment yesterday that someone said fans don’t seem as excited as they possibly should be seeing how we’re still in the hunt. The fans have been viewers of some awful, incomprehensible football from this team and staff this year. We know how this ends. If teams that went 13-3 couldn’t get it done it’s hard to get juiced for a team that may back in at 9-8. Of course we’ll root for them but it isn’t irrational to have extremely guarded optimism.
i generally agree with the narrative that Tua allowed this Packers win. i would have felt differently if AJ Dillon had kept his footing enough to get the first down/touch down on the last meaningful Packers’ offensive drive. more folks are turning to the idea that Tua may have had a brain injury toward the end of the game.. it seems plausible the game may have been a tale of two Tuas.
i have watched enough of the Vikings to have genuine respect for their play. the Vikings were too challenging for the Packers in week 1 and the Vikings are significantly better now that they have added T.J. Hockenson at TE and a ton of confidence from all of the winning that they have been doing this year. i don’t understand the Packers being favorites this week.
the forced fumble and recovery by Jarran Reed at the end of the first half was at least a 6 point play. that was an earned forced turnover at a crucial time. the Packers ended up winning by 6 points.
I read that the fake punt was an option – one that the coaching staff felt they exercised at a poor time after Miami sent the big guys out on the line. It would help explain why it occurred, but not why the players aren’t paying more attention to personnel packages in times like that.
The players should’ve been told to call off the fake punt if the Dolphins lined up a certain way. Regardless, LaFleur needed to call a timeout. There’s no way that play should’ve been run.