Brian Gutekunst has been the general manager of the Packers for 1,818 days. Arguably the best decision he’s made in that role happened a mere 107 days into his tenure. That’s when he traded the 14th pick in the first round of the 2018 draft to the New Orleans Saints for the 27th pick and a No. 1 in 2019. It was a shrewd and aggressive move by a young GM.
Surprisingly, Gutekunst hasn’t traded down in the first three rounds since his deal with New Orleans in 2018. Instead, he’s moved up four times, surrendering a quartet of fourth-round picks and a fifth-round pick for Oren Burks, Darnell Savage Jr., Jordan Love, and Amari Rodgers. While the jury is still very much out on Love, the verdict is in on the other three players. Burks and Rodgers were busts, and Savage has been a big disappointment. That’s the danger of trading up.
While history suggests that Gutekunst is far more likely to trade up come next Thursday and Friday nights, common sense dictates that he does the opposite. Four starters have already exited in free agency (wide receiver Allen Lazard, tight end Robert Tonyan, and defensive ends Jarran Reed and Dean Lowry), and another two are likely to follow them out the door (strong safety Adrian Amos and kicker Mason Crosby). The Packers’ current roster has more holes than Swiss cheese, which makes 2023 the perfect year to trade down in the draft and acquire as many extra high picks as possible.
Green Bay will select 15th next Thursday night, and unless one of the handful of elite prospects in the draft somehow falls into his lap, Gutekunst should do whatever he can to move down. The only questions should be how far and for what?
Gutekunst could be bold, as he was in 2018, and look to acquire a No. 1 pick in 2024. That would require sliding back into the late first round or perhaps out of it altogether. Of course, the payoff would come a year from now when the Packers would have at least two No. 1 picks and very possibly three, depending on how the trade for Aaron Rodgers unfolds. That type of ammunition could then be used to rebuild the roster around Love in a hurry, or if he’s not the answer, move up to get USC’s Caleb Williams or North Carolina’s Drake Maye, the projected top QBs in next year’s draft.
A less bold but equally smart move would be to trade the 15th pick to a team selecting in the mid-20s. That should net the Packers an extra second-round pick in this year’s draft. Just as importantly, it would allow Gutekunst to choose a prospect at a position of utmost need who wasn’t worth taking 10 spots earlier. Players such as Notre Dame tight end Michael Mayer, TCU receiver Quentin Johnston, Alabama safety Brian Branch, and Clemson defensive lineman Brian Bresee.
None of this is to suggest that trading up is always a mistake. Just minutes after sliding down from No. 14 to No. 27 in 2018, Gutekunst vaulted back up to No. 18 and selected two-time All-Pro corner Jaire Alexander. But such a move is risky, especially for GMs with more misses than hits in the first three rounds. More importantly, Gutekunst is in no position to give away premium picks. He needs to add as many as possible in order to start rebuilding a depleted roster.
Couldn’t agree with you more. I don’t expect Gute to stay at 15 – just hope he goes down instead of up. Adding one premium player doesn’t likely get the Packers to a winning season. Adding multiple potential premium players with the goal of evaluating Love and having a ton of talent and draft capital in 2024 seems like the best case scenario.
it appears that there will be multiple corners projected to be picked immediately after pick 15 (assuming Washington and Pittsburgh do not trade their picks at #16 and #17). Detroit’s pick #18 may also be a corner.
if Tampa is interested in a QB, say Hendon Hooker, they may wish to move up from #19. there seems to be a lot of wind blowing around QBs at the moment.. who will Tampa play at QB in the post-Brady era?
other interesting draft variables are the projected first-round OTs. the pundits are saying that the talent for the projected OTs in this draft takes a steep fall after the first handful are taken. that may push up the value of the first-round OTs.
I want Gutekunst to trade down every year, so I’m not holding my breath. But with so many needs, maybe he’ll do the smart thing and add picks this year. Just not in the third round!
I agree with you IF the Packers can’t get Jaxon Smith-Njigba. I’m pretty certain that he’s the next great slot receiver, and that’s exactly the type of player that a young QB needs. Otherwise, it does make more sense to trade down and get an extra second this year or an extra first next year.
I’d be fine with JSN at 15. He’d be a great help to Love. Same with a tight end. Everything Gutekunst does next week should be to give Love the best chance to succeed.
I can’t remember the last time I’ve heard such a lack of hype around an NFL draft. Sounds like a lot of positions are really weak and there’s not a lot of great prospects. Which has me wondering whether the whole “let’s just trade down” thing is what most GM’s are thinking going into the draft. Which has me thinking Gutey may not like the compensation being offered and will just stay. That’ll be unfortunate but it could very well turn out that way. If he can’t trade down, I’d love for him to take either the best T or the best pass catcher on the board.
I agree about this not being a great draft. Quite a few of the players selected in the teens and 20s would be second-round picks in other years. I expect a lot of GMs to be looking to trade down in round 1.
I’m fine with trading down as long as the return doesn’t include a third-round pick. Missing in that round must be a Packers thing. Ted and Gutey haven’t drafted a good player since Morgan Burnett.