One of the most unpredictable drafts in recent memory will begin later tonight. The Packers select 13th in the first round courtesy of a pick swap with the Jets as part of the Aaron Rodgers trade, and while Brian Gutekunst has talked about taking the best player available, the reality is he’s going to try to fill needs – just like all general managers do every year.
The following are the 12 players I project to be off the board when the Packers are scheduled to make their pick at No. 13.
| POSITION | PLAYER | COLLEGE |
|---|---|---|
| QB | Will Levis | Kentucky |
| QB | Anthony Richardson | Florida |
| QB | C.J. Stroud | Ohio St. |
| QB | Bryce Young | Alabama |
| OL | Paris Johnson Jr. | Ohio St. |
| OL | Peter Skoronski | Northwestern |
| DL | Jalen Carter | Georgia |
| ED | Will Anderson | Alabama |
| ED | Nolan Smith | Georgia |
| ED | Tyree Wilson | Texas Tech |
| CB | Christian Gonzalez | Oregon |
| CB | Devon Witherspoon | Illinois |
Assuming the dozen players listed above are no longer options for the Packers at No. 13, here are 11 more players who would be:
| POSITION | PLAYER | COLLEGE |
| RB | Bijan Robinson | Texas |
| WR | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | Ohio St. |
| WR | Quentin Johnston | TCU |
| TE | Dalton Kinkaid | Utah |
| TE | Michael Mayer | Notre Dame |
| OT | Broderick Jones | Georgia |
| OT | Darnell Wright | Tennessee |
| ED | Myles Murphy | Clemson |
| ED | Lukas Van Ness | Iowa |
| CB | Deonte Banks | Maryland |
| DB | Brian Branch | Alabama |
🏈ANALYSIS
There’s always a surprise or two early in the NFL draft, but the first dozen picks feel more predictable than most years. Maybe one of the quarterbacks will unexpectedly fall out of the top 12, or a team will grab Robinson before the Packers are on the clock, but Gutekunst should have a good idea of the players he’ll have to choose from come approximately 10 p.m. ET.
If the first 12 picks go as I predicted – a big if – there will be only three players left who are legitimate top-13 talents. Robinson is a special player who would be a bold and surprising choice. While running back is a devalued position in today’s NFL, he’s not a typical running back. Adding Robinson would let Gutekunst trade AJ Dillon for an early Day 3 pick, and it would give him a much cheaper replacement for Aaron Jones in 2024. Jones and Wright are very talented big men, and very talented big men don’t grow on trees. Of the two, I see the fast-rising Wright as the slightly better prospect.
After Robinson, Jones, and Wright, everybody else would be a reach of varying degrees at No. 13 in most drafts. Smith-Njigba is a smallish and slowish slot receiver. Johnston isn’t nearly as good of a prospect as former teammates Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave, who went 10th and 11th, respectively, a year ago. Kinkaid and Mayer are very good players, but only nine tight ends have been selected in the first round since 2010, and the majority of them didn’t really work out. Murphy and Van Ness would make more sense in the low to mid-20s, as would the speedy Banks and the versatile Branch.
Regardless of which players are available at 13, Gutekunst’s shrewdest move might be to trade down and add an extra pick or two. Aside from Robinson, Jones, and Wright, there won’t be much of a drop-off in talent from 13 to 20 or even 25. Smith, Njigba, Johnston, Mayer, Kinkaid, Murphy, Van Ness, Banks, and Branch won’t all still be available, but some will be. So might tight ends Luke Musgrave and Darnell Washington, edge rushers Will McDonald IV and Keion White, and cornerback Emmanuel Forbes. Of course, trading down, especially in a relatively weak draft, is easier said than done.
🏈BIG QUESTION
When will Gutekunst realize that the problem with the defense isn’t the talent? He’s spent first-round picks on Jaire Alexander, Rashan Gary, Darnell Savage, Eric Stokes, Quay Walker, and Devonte Wyatt in the past five drafts, and that side of the ball is only marginally better than it was in 2018. The problem is the coaching, and not just coordinator Joe Barry. Things won’t get appreciably better on defense until the entire staff is replaced. In the meantime, Gutekunst must start infusing the offense with high picks, especially with Jordan Love taking over for four-time MVP Aaron Rodgers.
🏈PREDICTION
The only thing I’m reasonably confident in predicting is that Gutekunst will make at least one trade in the first two rounds. He could move up or down, but he’ll be moving. Potential targets include Musgrave, Washington, McDonald, and White.
As for No. 13, I’m hoping for a skill player but question whether Gutekunst would move up from 15 to take Smith-Njigba or one of the tight ends. A big player seems more likely. I’ve been debating all month between Jones, Murphy, and Van Ness.
A strong argument can be made for all three players. Jones could start right away at either right guard or right tackle before replacing aging and expensive David Bakhtiari at left tackle in 2024. Either Murphy or Van Ness could help fill the void until Rashan Gary returns from last fall’s knee injury and then replace aging and expensive Preston Smith in 2024.
Who will be the pick? Well, Gutekunst loved Gary four years ago, and Murphy is pretty much the same prospect. And while that doesn’t guarantee he’ll have similar success in the NFL, it’s enough to sway me in this annual exercise in futility.
I know absolutely nothing about college football. So your guess is as good as mine.
What I’m hoping for, and what I think would be the funniest, is if the Jets trade with the Packers to re-acquire the 13th pick. Would instantly be my favorite live draft moment ever.
As much as I’d love to see the Packers finally draft a wide receiver in the first round, I don’t think Smith-Njigba will be the one to break the 20-year streak. At tight end, there should be quality players available in the second round. I expect Gutey to go big tonight and take the best offensive lineman available.
After reading McGinn’s draft previews I left terrified of the Packers ever drafting another Clemson player.
My personal hope is that the Packers allow one of the top 13 to fall to them and then pounce. I read a great article that analyzed the data on the number of accomplished players drafted at pick 13 vs 15. It’s stark. Someone great will be there at 13 and the Packers should stick to their board. (hopefully it’s for an OT)
Outside of BPA in round 1, I agree, it’s time to rebuild the offense. I also agree with Michael that throwing more resources at Joe Barry is a waste. Build the talent on offense and therefore put Love, who just so happens to play the most important position in football, in a position to succeed.
Force Barry to make a competent D out of the plethora of resources he already has. If he can’t, fire him after this season. But at least the offense could be clicking again after a rebuilding year.
I remember people didn’t want to draft Rodgers because he came from Cal. I wouldn’t be afraid to draft Murphy if I thought he was worth the 13th pick. Is he? I don’t know.
Absolutely. They’re the experts and I certainly am not. The article quoted a number of scouts and GMs that are very worried about the culture at Clemson. The players are coddled and soft were a couple of the opinions.
The difference was that Rodgers had to overcome the Tedford method of holding the ball too high, and had 3 full years to develop. And Rodgers has always been driven by being slighted, and he had a massive chip on his shoulder that drove him to success.
If the Packers think that Murphy has the fire, and isn’t soft like the long list of prior Clemson busts, then they should draft him.
Last year on the morning of the draft I read a Tweet that asked the question of what player (type of player) would make the biggest difference on the offense and defense.
On offense, my answer was easy: a WR1.
On defense, my answer was a 3-down LB. Too many teams were passing on first down and GB was in 2nd and three frequently. I didn’t see how GB could continue with two-down LBers. Often they needed to go to nickel, as a base defense.
I questioned my answer since LB was not a premium position, but added two names to my first round list. The second name was Quay Walker. Walker was the more athletic, but I thought he processed slower.
This year, I have to answer that same question on offense as a receiver who can operate in the middle of the field. Somebody who can get open on 3rd and 4 or out-position the defense on 3rd and 4. I have two names: Smith-Njigba and Kinkaid.
This doesn’t mean an OT isn’t a great value at 13, not does it mean that Van Ness is not a good pick. But in terms of making the biggest difference, I go with a receiver who can make a difference in the middle. They can draft a field stretcher later in the draft.
I think this is sound thinking, and I agree that Love will need a 3rd option in the middle of the field outside of Watson and Doubs. I just wonder if that could be any number of the top 10 TEs, and there should be plenty of those still there for the Packers picks in round 2.
I’m just not a fan of picking a JSN at 13 when he’d be a 2nd round pick in just about any other draft.
totally agree CJS. also, i think there could be a more significant injury risk with JS-N.
There is so much buzz about GB taking JSN or Kincaid at #13. I should probably resign myself to this now, lol.
I also noticed you mentioned a field stretcher in your original post. Totally agree that we need another burner. When Watson went down last year the entire offense stalled.
i agree with basically all of your analysis Michael.. thank you.
someone mentioned feeling nervous about drafting another guy from Clemson. given that Darnell Savage seems to be heading toward bustville, i wonder, too, if there might be some hesitation about considering another defensive back from Maryland. that said, i think, assuming the Packers pick at #13 and the board looks the same/similar to what is suggested above, i think that the best first-round athletes available to the Packers may be Myles Murphy and Deonte Banks: a Clemson helmet and a Maryland defensive back.
i have not read a single draft pundit suggesting the Packers will draft a corner in round 1. i would not protest the pick; however, i will assume Deonte Banks is off of the table.
i didn’t like the Amari Rodgers pick a few years ago; however, if the Packers select Murphy, i will put my Clemson trepidations aside and look forward to a better Packers defensive front in the near future (when Joe Barry is replaced??).
that all said, OT seems to have a lot of logic.. it could be an offense-heavy draft in support of Jordan Love. i am looking forward to it.. GPG!
I think I would be most disappointed if they picked Murphy. I’ll be slightly disappointed if they pick any defensive player, but Murphy and the Clemson thing makes me leery. While I would love to see them draft Kinkaid, I do think Jones or Wright at OL make the most sense for building up towards an elite OL, which is so essential. They can find two starters in the 2nd round – a safety and tight end. I’m surprised that Michael is so confident that they’ll move around somewhere in the first two rounds. Looking at their picks, it makes a lot of sense to stay where they’re at, assuming that a quality OL is available at #13, and that the offerings for them to draft down won’t be great, both of which I now expect.
We should trade back and start to strengthen the overall roster depth that has deteriorated the last several years. I’m thinking we need 4 reasonably high draft picks this year to address some of the issues. Wr,Te, Dl, and Edge. Safety can wait until day 3 or a waiver wire pick up can be had down the road. OT is another position that needs to be looked at this year or definitely next year. I don’t know the talent level of the college players as I no longer spend Saturdays watching the games but I do look at the physical characteristics of the players discussed. i don’t like trench players with very small hands so I’ll pass on Murphy.
I don’t know what Gutekunst will do tonight, but I’m sure I’ll be surprised. Just like I was with the two trades in 2018, trading up for Savage in 2019, Love in 2020, Stokes in 2021, and Walker last year.
Excellent point, and good examples.
I’m kicking myself. I had Van Ness as the pick from Monday until late Wednesday night when I switched to Murphy.
McGinn’s sources got this one right as far as teams’ trepidation around Clemson players. That said, Clemson still had 2 players go in the first, albeit very late first.