On Tuesday, the Green Bay Packers and Aaron Rodgers agreed to a four-year contract worth a reported $200 million. The back-to-back MVP is now signed through the 2026 season. The following is an early look at the winners and the losers:
WINNERS
1) There’s obviously no bigger winner than Rodgers, who’ll make more in this contract than 7-time Super Bowl champion Tom Brady earned in his final six contracts combined with New England and Tampa Bay. Rodgers, who’ll turn 39 in early December, couldn’t have made out better had he held a gun to team president and CEO Mark Murphy’s head. Last July, Rodgers had three years remaining on a deal that paid him $33.5 million a year. Eight months later, he’s in the first year of a deal that will pay him about $50 million a year. The great Harry Houdini couldn’t have pulled that off.
2) Murphy, general manager Brian Gutekunst, and head coach Matt LaFleur should be celebrating almost as much as Rodgers. By getting this deal done, Murphy doesn’t have to worry about going out a loser. He’ll be forced to retire when he turns 70 in July 2025, and if all goes according to plan, the Packers should still be ruling the roost in the NFC North. As for Gutekunst and LaFleur, they’ll likely be on their third contracts before having to prove whether they can actually do their respective jobs without the future first-ballot Hall of Fame QB gifted to them by former general manager Ted Thompson.
3) Davante Adams, who was slapped with the franchise tag on Tuesday afternoon but will almost certainly sign a long-term contract in the very near future, now gets to finish his career with Rodgers. That should punch his ticket to the Pro Football Hall of Fame. The 29-year-old All-Pro could’ve left Green Bay and found individual success with another team and another quarterback, but he wasn’t going to find a quarterback as talented or as eager to throw him the ball as Rodgers. In the past three seasons, Adams was targeted 445 times in 42 games. That’s a whopping 10.6 targets a game.
4) Fans will be winners for the next few years, assuming Rodgers stays healthy. Even with a diminished roster due to the salary cap, the Packers should make the playoffs at least twice before Father Time pays an inevitable visit. That wasn’t going to happen if Rodgers was traded away. Former first-round pick Jordan Love, who’s turned out to be a $200 million mistake, has shown little the past couple of years, and Gutekunst hasn’t drafted well enough on Days 2 and 3 to procure the good young talent needed to allow an inferior veteran quarterback to find success in 2022 and probably 2023.
LOSERS
1) Fans could be big losers in the future. Murphy and Gutekunst are gambling that re-signing Rodgers will lead to a Super Bowl win in the next few years, even though the team hasn’t gotten out of the NFC playoffs since 2010. A few hours after Rodgers re-upped in Green Bay, the Seahawks traded quarterback Russell Wilson to the Broncos for two first-round picks, two second-round picks, and a trio of players. That’s a tremendous return, and one similar to what the Packers would’ve received for Rodgers. With all those extra high picks, Gutekunst – if he’s any good at his job – would’ve been able to rebuild the Packers in a relatively short period of time and ensure success well into the next decade.
2) Love’s career in Green Bay has likely ended before it even began. With Rodgers going nowhere anytime soon, the former Utah State star figures to be traded before the start of next season, perhaps as soon as this month. Had Rodgers not been forced to sit out against the Chiefs last November due to testing positive for COVID-19, Love – if moved in the coming weeks – would’ve become the first quarterback drafted in round 1 to never start a game for the franchise that picked him (not counting Eli Manning and Philip Rivers, who were traded for each other on draft day). This sure as heck wasn’t the plan when Gutekunst stunned the football world by trading up for his “quarterback of the future” in April 2020.
IN CONCLUSION…
If the Packers hoist another Lombardi Trophy with Rodgers, most fans won’t be complaining if wins are few and far between in 2025, 2026, 2027, etc. But if the Packers don’t hoist another Lombardi Trophy with Rodgers, most fans won’t be very forgiving when times get tough. And times are going to get tough. That’s all but certain since many of Green Bay’s best players (Adams, running backs Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon, left tackle David Bakhtiari, defensive lineman Kenny Clark, strong safety Adrian Amos, and if they re-sign, tight end Robert Tonyan and inside linebacker De’Vondre Campbell) will either be declining or long gone by the time Rodgers finally calls it quits, and the salary cap is going to be a problem for the foreseeable future. The only questions are when will the losing begin and how long will the losing last?
*Rodgers hadn’t officially signed a contract as of early Wednesday morning, so the terms listed in this story are based on a report from Ian Rapaport. But the longtime NFL Network insider has outstanding sources within the Packers organization, so his numbers figure to be fairly accurate.
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I’m disgusted. For most I’ve my life, I’ve loved the Packers ownership structure and feel. In this case, the fact that no one person is actually at the wheel let a selfish, egotistical, talented player essentially call his own shot. They have had multiple shots at the Big game throughout Rodgers career. I have trouble understanding how an older Rodgers, a more filmed scheme, and then inevitable loss of talent makes it more likely we will see the Bowl in Rodgers twilight years.
Personal foibles aside, Favre had 10x the charisma of Rodgers. He rightly never got this treatment. I don’t understand short of selfish reasons of management why Rodgers got this.
The cynical side of me wonders if the this is strictly a financial decision. The fans today aren’t the same as the fans of yesteryear, and I wonder if the waiting list and seats will still be full if they suffer an extended bout of losing, especially without hope of getting better. The current structure of the league seems to make it easier to dodge extended stays in the basement… but then I remember the Jags, Lions, and Browns. Normally I’d say the Packers are a much better run org, but yesterday’s decision makes that hard to conclude right now.
I probably need a bit more time to process this. 🙂
Thanks for commenting. I’m really curious to find out what knowledgeable Packers fans think about this decision.
I think overall this is a pretty good analysis, Michael. Notable that there’s only two “losers” and one of them is a “could.” Those “future fans” seems to be an awfully doom-and-gloom point, really just guessing that Gutey’s gonna be awful after Rodgers. I don’t see that as such a likely endpoint as you. Could it happen? Absolutely. But overall Gutey seems to be at least in the top third of the league in GMs. Probably should have won best GM this year.
As I’ve been writing, this is a move that makes a lot of sense. Sure the draft picks are tempting but they have a QB who just won two straight MVPs. As we saw especially with the Rams winning it all, really the Packers have the talent, all they need is a bit of luck and some injuries to go their way. While I’m not elated that Rodgers is back – the longer he waited, the more I wanted them to trade him – I think it’s a sound decision, not a slam dunk but a pretty good bet. The NFC should be wide open next year and GB might just end up being the front runner.
I don’t see how this team, with three consecutive eggs laid in the playoffs, is going to be improved for the coming season.
They don’t need to be improved. They just have to avoid self destructing in the playoffs. I can’t say I’m confident about the Packers getting to the Super Bowl next season, but they probably have as good a chance as any team in the NFC.
I don’t think anyone is saying the Packers will be better in ’22 than they were in ’21 (except, likely, with special teams). The ’21 Packers team, if they were healthy, was the most talented and stocked Packers roster since the 1990s. What seems likely, however, is that the NFC won’t be any better and likely worse than it was in ’21. The QB drain in the NFC is amazing to watch. The Packers would be foolish to not try to take advantage of that. I’m not saying they WILL get to the SB but they have as good as shot as they have – and, again, with some luck and injuries going their way, they’re just as likely as any other NFC team.
I think it’s too soon to talk about a QB drain in the NFC. For all we know, Brady could unretire and go back to Tampa Bay, Lance could be great in San Francisco, and Watson could wind up in the NFC. I do agree that the Packers are just as likely as any team in the NFC to get to the Super Bowl, but that’s been true many times since 2010, and it never happened.
This article is on point, as usual.
After Tom Clements was brought back, the writing was on the wall that Rodgers and Adams were returning, but for how much $$$$$
Like Brad H I’m disgusted as well, but more so over the consistent embarrassment in January. If they couldn’t get it done the past 3 years; what makes everyone think that the next 3 – 4 are going to be any different.
I enjoy your tweets, especially when you have comments because to me it gives a sense that the average Packers fann is so clueless. They consistently attack your takes, but keep coming back to read them or continue following you, tell me how that makes sense!? It seems as long as they win double digits games during the regular season and get a 1 or 2 seed, that’s the Super Bowl to most Packers fanns. I just don’t get it.
No future team is going to be better than either of the last 3 teams. It simply won’t happen. Gutey is an average GM, he gets props for some of his first round picks. Gary offsets Savage (not terrible / need more consistency), Jaire A-P, but anybody can hit on a first round pick. It’s the later rounds. Sure MVS is a nice player but having Rodgers as ur QB sure helps.
Gutey GM for year? Is a huge stretch for me, Rasul had an amazing year we will never forget, but Gutey straight picked up a guy of waivers like fantasy football. Campbell was a cheap deal and turned into an All Pro, that’s all luck. Gutey still has to sift thru the shit, I get it, but those 2 signings don’t make him a better GM to me.
All I want to see is this defense stay together, but now that is impossible, give me an ascending defense with multiple picks to rebuild the offense and I would have been happy.
Alas, I’m not happy and prepared for another January bomb.
I will say this though, after Russ was traded to Denver. It made me think that GB will have the QB advantage against every NFC team. I don’t see GBs offense having to change much. It’s the defense that becomes a question again after such a promising beginning to the JB Era. GB will need to outscore everyone, so draft sum damn WRs.
Cheers.
“I enjoy your tweets, especially when you have comments because to me it gives a sense that the average Packers fann is so clueless. They consistently attack your takes, but keep coming back to read them or continue following you, tell me how that makes sense!?”
Thanks. I’ve been doing this for almost 20 years, and I’ve learned one thing – about 75% of Packers fans are clueless homers. They only want to hear positive things about their team. In fact, on average, my posts with positive headlines get 30% more views. But I’m always going to let you know what I think, and fortunately, I’ve been right a lot more times than I’ve been wrong since 2004.
I think trading Rodgers for a package of high picks would’ve been the best move, but I understand why Murphy (who I think made the decision) and Gutekunst chose to pay up to keep Rodgers. They take every season individually and aren’t willing to give up a chance to win it all, and the Packers do have a chance to win it all next season. I also think the point Michael made about Murphy retiring in a few years is important. There’s no way he wants to retire after two or three losing seasons. Changing a power structure that had worked for close to 30 years and taking over the LaFleur introductory press conference a few years ago showed me just how big his ego is.
I hope Gutekunst finally gets Rodgers a real No. 2 receiver. He’s the only old QB who had much better weapons around him when he was young.
i think the decision to let Rodgers be the one to choose his own destination was partly earned by his abilities and accomplishments. that said, i am currently feeling that this abdicating Rodgers’ decision indicates a lack of confidence on the part of LaFleur and, especially, Gutekunst, that Gutekunst/LaFleur to successfully move on past Rodgers. the decision to keep Rodgers more years is an indication that the Packers feel that Jordan Love is not ready to take the reigns of the team at this time.. this is basically an admission that the 2020 draftee was a failure for a pick.
we have the opportunity to look at the player-and-draft-pick-package that Denver paid out for Russ Wilson.. we can be sure that the potential Rodgers-to-the-Broncos trade would have been even beyond the Russ Wilson package. with that kind of player-plus-pick bounty, a confident GM should have felt confident that they could build a champion, maybe even a dynasty ala the Cowboys after the Hershel Walker trade. the timing of the trade, just after a seemingly historic draft class showing at the 2022 Combine should make the 2022 draft picks seem even more encouraging.
so, as Mr. Rodney points out, we don’t really know the talents of Gutekunst and LaFleur. they have chosen to ride on the coat-tails of a Hall of Fame Quarterback that they didn’t bring to the organization and didn’t develop. by not stepping into that unknown future sans Rodgers, it feels like the organization has committed to a certain level of stagnation and hopes for a 2022 playoff run based on the rest of the NFC taking a step backward this year. not entirely inspiring.
A long time ago but Randy Duncan was the 1st overall pick in the 1959 draft and never started a game for the team that drafted him. He chose the CFL over the Packers.
Everyone lives in fear of life without Rodgers. Because the last decade has been so satisfying? Both Rodgers and Gutekunst took the easy way out. It’s far easier for Rodgers to continue to bully the pathetic NFC north than go to Denver and face the best young QB’s in the NFL. While Gutekunst won’t give Love his shot. He may not be the answer but we all know what next season will bring. NFC north champs and then a quick playoff loss to Matthew Stafford, or even worse, getting beat by Prescott and Big Mike. I’m already sick to my stomach.