Teams tend to fall in love with numbers in the months leading up to the NFL Draft. All too often, the Relative Atletic Score (RAS) becomes more important than the game tape. That’s one of the reasons there are so many mistakes made in the first round. The best way for general managers to get it right next Thursday night is by simply trusting their own two eyes.
Tyler Linderbaum won’t be picked in the top 10, and there’s even an outside chance he could slip out of the first round completely. That’s because the 22-year-old former Iowa star and two-time All-American comes up a little – pardon the pun – short when it comes to size. But he sure as heck doesn’t come up short where it counts the most – on the football field.
Linderbaum was one of the best college interior offensive linemen in decades, but he’ll probably last into the 20s for two reasons. The first is that pure centers aren’t valued like guards and especially tackles. The second is that he weighs 296 pounds. I’d buy those arguments even a decade ago, but the game has changed dramatically in recent years. With so many teams relying on the zone running scheme and the (very) short passing game, having a center who can move is vital.
It’s no coincidence that the two best centers in the NFL are Jason Kelce (6-3, 295) and former Packer Corey Linsley (6-3, 301). Both All-Pros entered the league as Day 3 draft picks due in large part to their lack of size. But they’ve become highly-paid stars because they have the ability to get out in space and pull from the middle of the offensive line. And while giving up 20 or 30 pounds can sometimes be a problem in pass protection, Kelce and Linsley usually get the job done by relying on leverage, flexibility, balance, and power. Linderbaum possesses all of those same traits, which were probably honed as a star wrestler in high school. He placed fifth in the state of Iowa as a junior and third in the state as a senior.
While centers still aren’t valued as highly as tackles and guards, they’re appreciated now more than ever before. Just look at what teams are paying the only player besides the QB who touches the ball on every snap. Seven centers are making over $10 million per year. Linsley has the most lucrative deal ($62.5M), and Kelce has the highest annual salary ($14M).
Would general manager Brian Gutekunst be interested in Linderbaum at either 22 or 28? Probably not since he drafted a center in the second round a year ago. But he sure as heck should be interested. Linderbaum is simply a much better prospect than Josh Myers, who played decently before suffering an injury that forced him to miss 10 games last season. And while picking the best player should always be a GM’s top prerogative, the fact that Myers was a guard early in his career at Ohio State would give Gutekunst another reason to justify spending a high pick on a center for the second year in a row.
The upcoming draft has good depth, but there aren’t many elite prospects, especially after the first 12 to 15 players. Linderbaum is an elite prospect, but he almost certainly won’t go in the first half of round 1 because of his size and the position he plays. A smart GM will take advantage and get himself a future All-Pro as the clock approaches midnight on Thursday.
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I’d be excited for GB to get him at 28. I think the whole reason Gutey chose Myers over Humphrey is that Myers can also play G. Put Jenkins at RT, Myers at RG and then you have the makings of an elite OL. If you get Olave with a trade up with the previous pick, then the offense has a shot to be pretty good this year.