Rookie Receivers Rarely Excel

Romeo Doubs has been the talk of training camp through two weeks, and with fellow rookie Christian Watson still out with a knee injury, his importance to the offense increases with each passing day. The Packers really need the fourth-round pick from Nevada to make an immediate impact this season, and while that’s certainly possible, the odds are against it.




Twenty-one wide receivers have been drafted in the fourth round since 2017. Three didn’t play as rookies, and the 18 others averaged 18 catches, 206 yards, and 1.5 touchdowns. The best season was produced by Amon-Ra St. Brown in 2021. The former USC star caught 90 passes for 912 yards and five touchdowns for the Lions. None of the 17 other receivers caught more than 43 passes (Cleveland’s Antonio Callaway) or had more than 599 yards (Buffalo’s Gabriel Davis).

The following is a chart that lists the production of every wide receiver drafted in the fourth round from 2017 through 2021:

As you can see, not only do very few wide receivers picked in the fourth round have impactful first seasons, but even fewer go on to have productive careers in the NFL. While St Brown and Davis look like the real deals, Callaway never approached his rookie numbers again. The rest of the list is filled with journeymen (Westbrook, Reynolds, and Coutee) and busts (Hollins, Malone, Switzer, Chesson, Hansen, Hamilton, Scott, Moore, Butler, Jennings, Ridley, and Gandy-Golden). The jury is still out on the Class of ’21 (Fitzpatrick, Darden, and Wallace), but early returns aren’t particularly encouraging.

Obviously, none of this means Doubs can’t have an impactful rookie season and a long and successful career in the NFL. But it does mean that Packers fans would be wise to temper their expectations for the 22-year-old. While it’s true that some wide receivers have had major impacts right away, almost every one of them was drafted in the first three rounds.

The following is a chart that lists all the wide receivers who’ve had over 800 yards receiving in their rookie seasons since 2012:

As you can see, of the 27 rookie wide receivers who’ve had over 800 yards in the past 10 years, 23 were picked in the first two rounds, and two others were selected in round 3. The only players with over 800 yards not drafted during Days 1 and 2 were the aforementioned St. Brown and Willie Snead, who signed as an undrafted free agent in 2014. In total, 294 wide receivers have been drafted since 2012. That means fewer than nine percent had over 800 yards as rookies.

In the long and iconic history of the Packers, only two rookies ever had over 800 yards receiving in a season. Billy Howton accomplished the feat in 1952, and Pro Football Hall of Famer James Lofton did it two and a half decades later. That’s the entire list. In fact, only six other rookie wide receivers even eclipsed 500 yards – Max McGee in 1954, Boyd Dowler in 1959, Sterling Sharpe in 1988, Greg Jennings in 2006, James Jones in 2007, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling in 2018.

So what should we realistically expect from Doubs? Well, he should do better than the average rookie picked in the fourth round. Most of those players weren’t on teams with an MVP quarterback and without a legitimate No. 1 at the position. Still, the odds of him getting to 800 yards is unlikely. And while history suggests Watson has a much better chance of having an impactful rookie season, history doesn’t take into account him missing the opening weeks of camp.

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