Green Bay is 3-4 heading into Sunday night’s game at Buffalo. No team that started a season 3-5 has ever won the Super Bowl. Of course, playing in February should be the last thing on the minds of the Packers. They should be far more concerned about the very real possibility of getting humiliated on national TV against arguably the best team in the league.
If the reeling and banged-up Packers are going to pull off one of the biggest upsets of the season, here are five keys to victory:
1) WIN THE TURNOVER BATTLE
Green Bay is 30-0 under c0ach Matt LaFleur when they win the turnover battle, but amazingly, that hasn’t happened a single time this season. It’s hard to see this game being competitive unless Green Bay finishes the night at least plus-2. That won’t be easy to accomplish, but removing Amari Rodgers from punt returns would be a good start. The second-year wide receiver from Clemson has as many fumbles as catches. The defense also must hold onto any errant throws. Quarterback Josh Allen is one of the leading candidates for MVP, but he’s susceptible to forcing balls into coverage if pressured.
2) COMMIT TO RUNNING THE BALL
The Packers, even when healthy, have one of the worst collections of wide receivers in the National Football League. Without Allen Lazard, who won’t play due to a shoulder injury, the odds of doing damage through the air against a very talented and well-coached defense go from unlikely to almost impossible. Running the ball won’t be easy either – the Bills surrender only 3.48 yards per carry – but relying on Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon still makes a lot more sense than hoping Sammy Watkins, Romeo Doubs, Samori Toure, and perhaps Christian Watson (hamstring) can get open down the field.
3) BE MORE CREATIVE ON OFFENSE
LaFleur was hired mainly due to his background under some really good offensive coaches. President and CEO Mark Murphy wanted a cutting-edge schemer and play-caller similar to Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay, but lately, he’s been getting Mike McCarthy II. The Packers have stopped using motion at the request of Rodgers, so now it’s up to a bunch of pedestrian wide receivers and tight ends to win their one on ones. That isn’t happening. After seven weeks of mostly futility, LaFleur and Rodgers must be willing to try new things. Otherwise, just getting first downs will be a significant challenge.
4) STAY DISCIPLINED ON DEFENSE
Buffalo is smart and creative on offense. That’s not good considering Green Bay is neither of those things on defense. So how can Joe Barry’s underachieving unit keep Allen and company from putting up 30-plus points? Besides saying a collective prayer before the game, the Packers must be extremely physical, and they must tackle well. Also, the outside linebackers need to be disciplined. Last week, Rashan Gary kept crashing inside when he was supposed to be holding the edge and gave up several outside runs. Jonathan Garvin got benched for making the exact same mistake against the Jets.
5) PLAY WITH PRIDE AND HEART
Here’s what Jets coach Robert Saleh told his offense about the Packers’ defense a few weeks ago: “Just keep giving them body blow after body blow after body blow. And just keep hitting them, keep hitting them in the mouth. O-line just keep pushing and just keep leaning on them and we felt like if we could just keep taking them down to deep water, they’ll find out they can’t swim.” He was correct. Despite all the No. 1 picks and high-priced stars on defense, this group has proven to be as soft as Charmin. If they don’t man up against the Bills, they’ll be humiliated for 60 minutes on Sunday night.
PREDICTION: I’ve been following the Packers since 1978, and their win over the 49ers in 1989 is still probably the most surprised I’ve ever been by the outcome of a game. Led by Don Majkowski, 5-5 Green Bay went into San Francisco and beat the 9-1 49ers and Joe Montana. As the old saying goes, “on any given Sunday.” But as crazy as this sounds, I’d be even more shocked if the Packers manage to upset Buffalo on Sunday night.
The Bills are flying high at 5-1 and boast the No. 1 offense and defense in the league. They are also coming off a bye, so their players will be extremely well-rested, and their coaches will have had more time to prepare. Factor in the extra energy provided by the home crowd and a national TV audience, and it all adds up to a potentially very long night for the Packers.
Buffalo is favored by 10, making this the first time Green Bay has been a double-digit underdog with Rodgers at quarterback. That should fire up the Packers, who desperately need to break a three-game losing streak, but will motivation be enough to keep this game close? I have my doubts. BUFFALO 37-17 (Season record: 3-4; 3-4 vs. the spread)
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I’ll bet the Packers management is regretting turning down the bye after London. Sure it would have been early but there’s a reason most teams take it.
This looks like a team that desperately needs a bye.
I remember that game against the 49ers. I think they won the Super Bowl that season, but the Packers beat them in Candlestick. It was one of the few highlights from the 80s.
Funny you should mention that 49er game from 89. I remember it vividly. I pretty sure it was in Wisconsin although I don’t remember where. We were still playing games in Milwaukee back then. I was working with a pharmacist at the hospital that was a huge Joe Montana and 49er fan at the time. Couldn’t wait to give him a little good natured ribbing over the upset. He congratulated me on the win and told me that was my SB. He also told me his team would win the real SB and he was right. No one, except a few diehard Packer fans, remembers that game yet everyone knows who was winning SB’s back in the 80’s. Joe Montana and the 49ers. It why Aaron is destined to obscurity. He just didn’t win enough championships.
The comments made by Robert Saleh are rather generic and could be said about any opponent. That game against the Jets was 3-3 midway thru the third quarter. You don’t hold your opponent to 3 points that deep into a game if your defense is “soft.” The defense got tired because the offense couldn’t get first downs to keep them off the field. Last night against the Bills they held Buffalo, the probable AFC SB team, to a FG in the second half. Saying the defense is soft is a tough sell for me.