Draft Preview: Mock 1.0

I‘ve never been a big fan of mock drafts, but people seem to love them. So here’s my first effort at predicting what will happen on Thursday, April 27. The Packers currently have one selection in the first round – 15th overall – although that could change after the Aaron Rodgers trade to the Jets is finally completed. Regardless of where general manager Brian Gutekunst picks or how many picks he has, expect him to choose an elite athlete from a big school because, aside from trading up for Utah State quarterback Jordan Love in 2020, that’s what he always does on the first evening of the NFL Draft.

The following are the 14 players I project to be off the board when the Packers make their selection at No. 15. Of course, there’s also a pretty good chance Gutekunst will trade up or down in the first round for the fourth time in the past six Aprils:

There’s a very good chance one or two of the players on the above list will still be available at 15, but for the sake of this exercise, let’s assume all 14 are off the board. That would leave a handful of strong possibilities for Gutekunst, and let’s face it, aside from perhaps inside linebacker, there’s not a position that wouldn’t make sense for Green Bay in the first round. Heck, if one of the top four quarterbacks somehow fell to 15 – which is very unlikely – that player would have to be considered.

THE POSSIBILITIES

Deonte Banks (Maryland) had one of the most impressive Combines of all time and is now a virtual lock to be drafted in the first round. He went to the same school and played the same position as Darnell Savage, but he reminds me a lot more of a bigger Jaire Alexander, who’s been named All-Pro twice in his first five seasons with the Packers. Even though Gutekunst has used three No. 1 picks and a No. 2 pick on defensive backs since being hired as general manager in January 2018, the secondary remains very much a work in progress. Savage was benched in the middle of last season, and Eric Stokes really struggled prior to being placed on injured reserve after Week 9.

Brian Branch (Alabama) posted a disappointing 40 at the Combine (4.58), which could keep Gutekunst from drafting him at 15. It shouldn’t. Branch’s college tape is outstanding. While he might not be stopwatch fast, he plays fast. Very few wide receivers ran away from him during his three seasons in the SEC. Branch figures to start at safety at the next level, but he should also be able to hold up as a slot corner. He makes up for a lack of elite speed with quick feet, fluid hips, and great anticipation. He’s also a tough SOB, which would make him a novelty in the Green Bay secondary. If Gutekunst can overlook those mediocre 40 yards, he’ll have to seriously consider Branch on Day 1.

Brian Bresee (Clemson) was slowed by knee and shoulder injuries the past two seasons, but the former No. 1 recruit in the country possesses the skill set and the scheme versatility that should appeal to Gutekunst. Bresee ran sub-4.9 at over 300 pounds at the Combine, and that impressive combination of size and athleticism shows up on tape (when healthy). He’s stout enough at the point of attack to play end in the base before moving to tackle in the nickel. As an interior rusher, the 21-year-old has good initial quickness off the ball to pierce gaps and can convert speed to power and bull blockers into the backfield with leverage. Bresee’s best days should be ahead of him.

Calijah Kancey (Pittsburgh) isn’t Aaron Donald, but he’s going to make a huge impact at the next level. I watched him live three times and was completely blown away by his ability to get up the field. Kancey’s undersized at 6-foot-1 and 280 pounds, but his initial quickness off the ball is ridiculous. He’s also able to bull blockers into the backfield with leverage. I almost felt sorry for the guards and centers assigned to block him. Whether he can hold up against the run in the NFL is a legitimate concern, but he’s worth taking in the middle of the first round, even if he plays 30 snaps a game. Having Kancey and Kenny Clark rushing up the middle would scare the crap out of quarterbacks.

Quentin Johnston (TCU) isn’t the best wide receiver in this class, but if the Packers are going to use a No. 1 pick at the position for the first time in 20 years, he’d be a more likely candidate than either Ohio State’s Jaxon Smith-Njigba or USC’s Jordan Addison. That’s because Johnston possesses the elite size and speed that Gutekunst covets. In fact, he’s similar in many ways to Christian Watson, who led Green Bay with seven TD catches as a rookie and figures to be the No. 1 option in the passing game next season. Of course, Watson went 34th overall. There will come a time when a Packers’ general manager drafts a wide receiver in the first round, but this probably won’t be that year.

Dalton Kinkaid (Utah) has seen his stock soaring in recent weeks, and he’ll almost certainly be the first tight end selected in the draft. That’s because he’s a better athlete than Michael Mayer of Notre Dame, who’s more Mark Andrews than Travis Kelce. And while there’s nothing wrong with Andrews, who’s gone to a pair of Pro Bowls with Baltimore, nobody would take him in the middle of the first round. Of course, Kelce didn’t get drafted until the third round, so it’s fair to question whether any tight end should go at 15. Still, Kinkaid would be a great security blanket for Love since very few strong safeties and even fewer inside linebackers will be able to cover him in the middle of the field.

Myles Murphy (Clemson) might be too tempting for teams picking before Green Bay to resist, but with four quarterbacks expected to go in the top 10, there’s at least a chance the explosive edge rusher makes it all the way to 15. If he does, Gutekunst would have to be interested. While Murphy wasn’t dominant on a weekly basis in the rugged ACC, his potential at the next level is unlimited. He’s blessed with elite size and speed and gives 100% on every snap. He just needs to add variety to his pass-rush repertoire. If this scouting report reminds you of Rashan Gary, it should. They were similar college players. Of course, Gary, who was picked 12th overall in 2019, is now a star for the Packers.

Bijan Robinson (Texas) might be one of the five best players in the draft, but running backs have been devalued in recent years, so he could be around at 15. While the Packers have Pro Bowler Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon, the former will be 29 in December, and the latter is in the final year of his rookie deal. More importantly, Robinson is simply a cut above both of them. There’s no better friend to a young quarterback than a game-changing back. Just ask Daniel Jones of the Giants, who should give Saquon Barkley a cut of the massive $160M extension he signed earlier this month. So while Robinson would make a lot of sense at No. 15, I’d be very surprised if he were the pick.

THE PICK

If Gutekunst has a sense of irony, he’ll use this year’s first-round pick on a skill position player, something the Packers didn’t do once during Rodgers’ decade and a half as the starting quarterback. However, the top prospects available at 15 figure to be on the other side of the ball. Gutekunst could trade down, take a wide receiver or tight end in the 20s, and add more picks. That’s what I’d do, considering the numerous holes on the roster following all the defections in free agency.

I seriously considered Bresee, Kinkaid, Johnston, and especially Branch, but kept coming back to Murphy. Gutekunst couldn’t pass up Gary in 2019; Murphy is a remarkably similar prospect, and the need at outside linebacker is greater than it was four years ago. The best way to overcome a run-of-the-mill defensive coordinator like Joe Barry is to have two young studs flying off the edge and getting in the QB’s face as often as possible. A good pass rush can mask many deficiencies.